Apple stock has a history of recovering after iPhone launches. The stock has often seen a small “sell-the-news” reaction right after an iPhone launch, but it has frequently recovered within the next 30 to 60 days, according to Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan.
History gives Apple investors a reason to be hopeful. Apple stock has risen in the 60 days after an iPhone reveal 17 times since the original iPhone launch in 2007, Mohan’s analysis found, according to Yahoo Finance. The biggest post-launch gain was 20%. Apple shares climbed 20% in the 60 days after the iPhone 11 was unveiled in 2019, marking the strongest gain in Mohan’s analysis.
Apple stock before iPhone 18 launch
Apple shares were moving around before the latest event. The stock wavered during premarket trading on Wednesday, September 9, ahead of Apple’s latest product launch event. The iPhone 18 launch is a major moment for Apple. Apple is has often risen after iPhone launches.holding its September 9 “Surprise and Shine” keynote at the Steve Jobs Theater, where the company is expected to show its next-generation products.
John Ternus leads Apple event
The event also marks a leadership change. Newly appointed CEO John Ternus is expected to take the stage for his first major Apple product launch after replacing Tim Cook earlier this month. A foldable iPhone could be the biggest attraction. Apple is widely expected to introduce its first foldable iPhone, which could reportedly be called the iPhone Ultra.
Foldable iPhone price could top $2,000
The foldable iPhone could be very expensive. Citi analysts expect the device to have a starting price of more than $2,000, making it one of Apple’s most expensive smartphones. Apple could sell millions of foldable iPhones.
Citi estimates Apple could sell about 5 million units of the new foldable device in the second half of 2026. Sales could continue into 2027. Citi expects another 2.3 million foldable iPhones to be sold in the first quarter of 2027, according to Yahoo Finance.
Also read: Apple took 7 years to make a foldable iPhone. What was it waiting for?
iPhone 18 AI features in focus
The iPhone Ultra will not be the only new product. Apple is also expected to introduce the iPhone 18 Pro lineup, new Apple Watch models and refreshed software with more AI-focused features. AI could play a big role in how investors react. Bank of America’s Wamsi Mohan said investor reaction could depend on how much Apple raises prices, how well customers adopt its Siri AI features and what the company says about demand for foldable iPhones.
Higher iPhone prices may hurt Apple
Higher iPhone prices could become a problem for Apple. Along with the expensive foldable model, Apple is expected to raise prices for some regular iPhone 18 models. This comes as the company faces much higher chip costs. Memory chips are putting pressure on Apple’s profits. Apple is dealing with rising memory chip prices, which are increasing costs and putting pressure on the company’s profit margins.
Memory chip shortage hits Apple
Apple already gave cautious revenue guidance. The company issued cautious revenue guidance for the current quarter in late July, partly because it could not source enough memory chips to meet demand. The memory problem may not disappear soon. Former Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company is dealing with an unusually severe rise in memory prices and expects the pressure to continue.
Apple has already raised prices because of the memory crunch. Cook said Apple had to “reluctantly” increase prices because memory costs were rising sharply. AI companies are making the memory shortage worse. Demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced DRAM used in AI servers is growing faster than supply.
Also read: Apple’s $2,000 foldable iPhone: Can it finally make foldable phones mainstream?
AI demand pushes memory prices higher
Major memory makers are already heavily booked. Companies including SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and Micron have largely sold out their premium AI memory capacity through much of 2026. Big tech companies are competing for those chips. Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta are among the companies racing to build AI infrastructure and secure large amounts of advanced memory, according to Yahoo Finance.
The shortage has pushed memory prices higher. Limited supply and strong AI demand have given memory-chip suppliers more power to raise prices after several years of weak conditions in the industry. The memory pressure could continue into 2027. Experts expect memory supplies to remain tight into next year, which could keep prices high and benefit major memory-chip producers.
So, will Apple stock rise after the iPhone 18 launch? History suggests Apple shares have a good chance of recovering and gaining over the following 60 days, but this year’s reaction could depend on several new risks.
The key things investors will watch are price, AI and foldables. Investors will likely focus on whether higher iPhone prices hurt demand, whether Apple’s Siri AI features gain traction and whether consumers are willing to pay more than $2,000 for a foldable iPhone. The biggest risk is that higher costs could offset strong iPhone demand. Even if the iPhone 18 launch gets a positive response, expensive memory chips and higher production costs could continue to pressure Apple’s margins.
Apple’s history is broadly positive after iPhone reveal days, with shares gaining over the following 60 days in 17 instances. But the iPhone 18 launch comes with bigger questions around price hikes, AI adoption, foldable demand and rising memory costs, so investors may look beyond the launch-day reaction.
