Srinagar, Feb 19: Across Kashmir’s countryside, spring seems to have arrived weeks ahead of schedule. Almond buds are swelling, willow trees are softening, and orchards are preparing to flower, nearly two to three weeks earlier than usual. Yet the Valley’s farmers are far from celebrating; they are anxious.
The reason is simple: winter has largely failed. Large parts of Kashmir have experienced one of the driest winters in recent memory. Snowfall in the plains has been scant, and even higher reaches have recorded below-normal accumulation. Fields that should remain frozen through February lie bare, while streams that typically swell with snowmelt are running weak.
Independent meteorologist Faizan Arif attributes the anomaly to weakened Western Disturbances, the Mediterranean-origin storm systems that bring most of Kashmir’s winter rain and snow. “Western Disturbances this season have been fewer and weaker. Many systems are tracking north of the region due to altered atmospheric circulation,” he said. “The ongoing dry spell shows no sign of relief until the end of the month.”
Meteorological data confirms the concern. Kashmir normally receives 150–180 mm of precipitation between January and February, but this year, several stations have recorded deficits of 60–80%. Snowfall days, especially in south Kashmir, have been brief rather than sustained, while temperatures remain consistently above average. “Such warmth is triggering early blooming of trees,” Arif warned.
“Day temperatures are staying above normal and, if the warm spell intensifies, some records may even be challenged,” Arif said. “Such warmth in late winter is already triggering early blooming of trees.”
Orchardists across Budgam, Shopian, and Pulwama confirm the shift. Ghulam Mohammad Bhat of Shopian inspected a swelling apple bud with worry: “This should happen in March, not February. If frost comes after flowering, the blossoms will burn, meaning no apples, no income for the year.” Abdul Rashid Mir of Pulwama noted, “Winters are shorter now. Trees wake up early, but the weather is still unstable. That’s dangerous.”
Experts explain that fruit trees require a prolonged cold period, known as chilling, to regulate flowering and fruit development. Without it, growth is irregular and fruit quality suffers. “Premature flowering itself is biological stress,” said a horticulture officer. “Even without frost, fruit size, color, and storage life can decline. A late frost could be catastrophic.”
The greater risk lies ahead. Western Disturbances can still arrive in March, bringing sudden cold conditions. “If a late frost occurs during the blossom phase, it can severely damage fruit-bearing trees,” Arif warned.
Kashmir’s apple industry produces 20–22 lakh metric tonnes annually, supporting lakhs of families. Basheer Ahmad Bashir, president of the Kashmir Valley Fruit Growers-cum-Dealers Union, called the early bloom a warning: “This is not pleasant spring weather — it is a climatic imbalance. If flowering comes early and frost follows, growers could face heavy losses.”
“This is not pleasant spring weather, it is a climatic imbalance,” he said. “Our horticulture depends on proper winter chilling followed by gradual warming. If flowering comes early and frost follows, growers will face heavy losses.” For now, the Valley appears serene under bright sunshine and snowless fields. But behind the premature blossoms lies uncertainty. This year in Kashmir, farmers are not waiting for spring, they are worrying about it.
