GUWAHATI: After winning 16 seats in 2021, AIUDF and its leader, Badruddin Ajmal, appeared to have emerged as the counter pole to Himanta Biswa Sarma. The outfit embodied the political awakening of Assam’s Bangladeshi-origin Muslims immigrants.A lot has changed in five years. AIUDF is no longer a Congress ally, Ajmal finds his aura diminished after a heavy defeat (by more than 10 lakh votes) to Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, and delimitation has changed the arithmetic in AIUDF bastions. A five-year-old party, the Akhil Gogoi-led Raijor Dal, is seen to be eating into the AIUDF base.Recently, responding to the CM’s remark about “breaking the backbones” of ‘miyas’ in the state, Ajmal responded by saying “not Himanta but miya dadagiri will prevail in Assam” after the assembly polls.The 2026 election may feel like a battle for survival for AIUDF, but the perfume baron hasn’t lost his pluck. Within the party, the assessment after Ajmal’s Dhubri defeat in 2024 was that AIUDF was in its weakest phase since inception in 2006. “Ajmal lost his bastion in a wave where 91% of Muslims of the country voted for INDIA bloc,” says Champak Kalita, general secretary of AIUDF’s central committee.But Congress, Kalita insists, has lost momentum after defeat in Bihar and AIUDF can gain from it. “After losing Dhubri, public opinion was not in our favour. But after the Bihar election, there has been a paradigm shift. Momentum has returned and people now feel Congress has weakened and cannot form govt. They are returning to AIUDF. We have regained ground.”Kalita terms the delimitation exercise, which has reduced the number of seats where Muslim voters hold decisive sway, “unconstitutional”. The party is contesting 29 seats and hopes to win 22-25.Former military intelligence officer and political observer Brig Ranjit Borthakur (retd) says Ajmal and AIUDF “certainly have their backs against the wall”.“We have seen that Muslims rejected him in the Lok Sabha election in his backyard. The fact that AIUDF voted for an NDA candidate (in Rajya Sabha) creates doubts that Ajmal might have some kind of understanding with Sarma,” Borthakur says. “Ajmal’s popularity has waned because he projected himself as representative of the miya community but has not been successful in delivering much. People have realised this. Secondly, many miya families have benefited from the BJP govt’s welfare schemes. A section of Muslims here might vote in favour of BJP.”Locally, Bangladeshi-origin Muslim immigrants are called ‘miya’, separating them from indigenous Muslim communities like Gorias, Moriyas, Jolhas, Deshis and Syeds. These communities number around 40 lakh, which is one-third of the state’s total Muslim population.As he goes back to the drawing board, Ajmal has also returned to the place he made his assembly debut from in 2006. Then known as Jamunamukh, the reconfigured post-delimitation constituency is now known as Binnakandi. It retains its Muslim-majority demographic character.“Ajmal’s presence in the assembly is vital. When he is in the assembly and all our other MLAs are standing behind him, Sarma will not have the courage to abuse miyas,” says Kalita. “If a non-BJP govt is formed, AIUDF will extend unconditional support. If BJP wins, our MLAs will protest and stand up against any injustice done like eviction of Muslim people” he adds.AIMIM president Asaduddin Owaisi is campaigning extensively for Ajmal, the rallies drawing large crowds with “miya zindabad” slogans. “I have come to Assam for a special purpose. To speak for the rights and protection of miya Muslims,” he has said.Addressing a rally at Binnakandi, Owaisi accused BJP of indulging in “hate politics” and Congress of being “silent” against it. He called the state govt’s eviction drives “unconstitutional”, and “a violation of human rights”.Four decades ago, a similar pro-immigrant party story had unfolded. United Minorities Front had emerged in 1985 after the Assam Accord. In its debut election, it made a strong entry with 17 seats. By 2001, it failed to win any seats. In 2005, UMF’s netas joined a new party – AIUDF.
