Iran’s participation in the men’s FIFA World Cup, scheduled to begin in the United States in three months, is uncertain amid an escalating conflict in the Middle East. The tournament is being co-hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico.Iran is scheduled to play its three group-stage matches in the US from June 15-26, with two games in Inglewood, California, and one in Seattle. The expanded 48-team tournament will feature 104 matches across the three host countries.
Since Saturday, the United States and Israel have carried out coordinated attacks on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior officials. Iran responded by firing missiles toward US allies, including Qatar, which hosted the 2022 World Cup, and Saudi Arabia, selected by FIFA to host the 2034 edition.Iran’s top footballofficial Mehdi Taj, who is also a vice president of the Asian Football Confederation, said the situation has changed the outlook for the tournament. “What is certain is that after this attack, we cannot be expected to look forward to the World Cup with hope,” Taj said.It is not clear whether Iran’s state-backed football federation could decide not to send the team to the tournament, which begins June 11, or whether the US government could prevent the team from entering the country.FIFA has not commented since Saturday, when secretary general Mattias Grafström said it would “monitor developments around all issues around the world.”Andrew Guiliani, the White House official overseeing World Cup preparations, posted on social media Saturday: “We’ll deal with footballgames tomorrow,” Guiliani wrote about Iran, “tonight, we celebrate their opportunity for freedom.”Asian football powerIran has qualified for six of the past eight World Cups and is ranked No. 20 among 211 teams in the latest FIFA rankings. The team has not dropped below No. 24 since the last World Cup in Qatar.At the World Cup draw held Dec. 5 in Washington, D.C., Iran was placed among the second-seeded teams. The event took place minutes after US President Donald Trump received the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize. Although Taj and other Iranian officials were denied US visas, the draw placed Iran in a favorable group under the expanded format, where many third-place teams move on to the knockout stage.Iran opens against New Zealand, then plays Belgium, and finishes its group matches against Egypt.The team is expected to receive support from members of the Iranian diaspora in the US, even though residents of Iran are subject to a travel ban. The US administration has said athletes and coaches will be exempt from travel restrictions for major sporting events such as the World Cup.Political issues involving Iran have surfaced at previous tournaments. At the last World Cup, fans used stadiums to protest domestic matters.The FIFA rulesFIFA regulations allow for a team to withdraw or be excluded from the World Cup, though the language in the rules is broad.Article 6.7 states: “FIFA shall decide on the matter at its sole discretion and take whatever action is deemed necessary.”The rules add: “FIFA may decide to replace the Participating Member Association in question with another association.”This gives FIFA president Gianni Infantino authority over decisions involving a withdrawal. Eighteen months ago, Infantino announced that Lionel Messi’s club, Inter Miami, would be added to the 2025 Club World Cup, a move that appeared to lack a clear basis in tournament regulations.Consequences of withdrawingIf Iran withdraws, its federation would lose at least $10.5 million. FIFA awards $9 million to each of the 16 teams eliminated in the group stage, and all 48 teams receive $1.5 million to cover preparation costs.The federation would also face fines of at least 250,000 Swiss francs ($321,000) if it withdraws up to three days before the tournament, and at least 500,000 Swiss francs ($642,000) if it withdraws in the final month before kickoff.Iran could also face exclusion from qualifying for the 2030 World Cup.Who could replace Iran?Iran secured one of eight automatic Asian qualification spots last March.If it withdraws, Iraq or the United Arab Emirates could replace it. The two teams were ranked ninth and 10th in Asia during qualifying and met in a two-leg playoff last November.Iraq won 3-2 on aggregate to eliminate the UAE and advanced to the intercontinental playoffs in Mexico. On March 31, Iraq is scheduled to face either Bolivia or Suriname in a match that will decide a World Cup place.FIFA’s rules state it may replace a withdrawn team “with another association,” without specifying that the replacement must come from the same continental confederation.There is precedent for late changes. Denmark won the 1992 European Championship after receiving a late invitation from UEFA. Yugoslavia had qualified but was removed less than two weeks before the tournament due to United Nations sanctions during the Balkans conflict.Teams have declined to participate in past World Cups, though not in recent decades. The 1950 World Cup in Brazil featured 13 teams instead of 16 after India and Scotland declined to take part.
