Pune: This July has been the city’s wettest in at least 13 years, as the rainfall at IMD’s Shivajinagar observatory surpassed 400mm in the month for the first time since at least 2014.An expert from the Vagaries of Weather blog said, “As of 8.30am on Wednesday, the observatory had received 452.6mm of rain this month, while the cumulative seasonal (monsoon) rainfall also crossed the 500mm-mark. The milestone comes after another spell of moderate rainfall across Pune district during the 24 hours ending 8.30am on Wednesday.”The expert said, “The 452.6mm rain recorded in Shivajinagar this July has surpassed the previous highest July totals available since 2014. The observatory had recorded 394mm of rain in July 2024, 386.2mm in 2022 and 369.1mm in 2019. In contrast, several years saw considerably lower July rainfall, including 62mm in 2015, 119.8mm in 2020 and 2025, 154.5mm in 2023 and 175.6mm in 2018.”IMD scientist SD Sanap said, “Most of the rainfall this month was during the first eight days because of a single weather system. That spell contributed significantly to the month’s cumulative rainfall and is the main reason why July’s total has become so high.”Several locations in the district received substantial rainfall from 8.30am on Tuesday till 8.30am on Wednesday, led by Kurvande (96.5mm). Shivajinagar recorded 37.5mm rain during this period.The rain intensity reduced between 8.30am and 5.30pm on Wednesday. Shivajinagar received 7.1mm rain during this period, NDA 6mm, Koregaon Park 4.5mm, Lohegaon 3.8mm and Pashan 8.6mm.According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s classification, the rainfall recorded over Pune city during the latest 24-hour period till Wednesday morning falls in the moderate rainfall category. The rainfall intensity had increased on Tuesday after a lull of over 10 days. The IMD upgraded its forecast to light to moderate rainfall over the next few days.Sanap said, “An east-west shear zone is currently positioned around 20°N-22°N, favourable for rainfall over Maharashtra. Rainfall intensity is not expected to increase significantly, but the present pattern is likely to continue till Thursday. While the intensity is relatively lower at present, some places are expected to receive rain during the night as well. Overall, rainfall is likely to remain in the light to moderate category.”On El Nino and uneven rainfall distribution this season, Sanap said, “Uneven distribution of rainfall is more common during El Niño years, but there is a common misconception that El Niño means no rainfall. Heavy rainfall events can occur during an El Nino year, and some regions may receive very high rainfall even if the overall seasonal monsoon is below normal or near normal. Since two months of the monsoon season are still left, it is too early to assess the overall impact of El Nino based on the rainfall so far. The impact is assessed using the seasonal monsoon rainfall rather than rainfall during a single month.”
