Apples, constituting 70-75% of India’s total output, particularly vulnerable
Srinagar, Feb 27: Kashmir’s orchards, glowing in soft shades of pink and white, are witnessing an unusually early bloom this year following a warmer-than-normal February. While no Western Disturbance (WD) is currently active over the Valley, experts warn that any sudden weather system in the coming days could put the premature flowering to a serious test and lead to crop damage.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif said the present conditions remain stable. “There is no significant Western Disturbance influencing Kashmir at the moment. Skies are largely clear, and temperatures have remained above normal for this time of the year. However, we are in a transitional phase. If a moderate or strong WD develops, it could bring rainfall and a noticeable temperature drop, which would test the early bloom,” he said.
Western Disturbances — extratropical systems that typically affect Jammu and Kashmir between February and April — are crucial for winter and early spring precipitation. Climatological data show that the region generally witnesses multiple moderate to strong WDs during this period, often causing fluctuations of 3–6 degrees Celsius within a short span, along with rain in plains and snow in higher reaches.
This year, however, the warmer spell has advanced flowering in almonds, cherries and other fruit crops by nearly 10–20 days in several parts of the Valley, according to field observations by growers. A danger is also looming over the precious apple crop, as apples need 1000 to 1,600 chilling hours for ideal flowering.
Horticulture experts note that such advancement narrows the protective window before potential spring disturbances.
Chairman of the Kashmir Valley Fruit Growers Association, Bashir Ahmad Basheer, said growers are cautiously watching the skies. “At present, the weather is favourable, and there is no Western Disturbance. But if a WD occurs now and brings rain or a sudden fall in temperature, it will definitely test the fruit set stage. Even light rainfall during peak bloom can disturb pollination and cause petal fall,” he said.
An expert from Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir (SKUAST-K) explained that fruit trees, particularly apple — which covers over 1.6 lakh hectares in Jammu and Kashmir — depend heavily on adequate winter chilling hours for uniform flowering and optimal yield.
“When winters are warmer, chilling hour accumulation may decline, leading to uneven blooming. If this is followed by a sudden rain spell or temperature dip during flowering, pollination efficiency can be affected, ultimately reducing fruit set and yield,” the expert said.
Horticulture contributes significantly to Jammu and Kashmir’s economy, with apple production alone accounting for nearly 70–75 per cent of India’s total apple output and supporting lakhs of farming families. Even a marginal dip in yield can have cascading economic effects.
For now, the blossoms sway under calm skies, offering a spectacle of early spring. But in Kashmir’s climate — where Western Disturbances can develop swiftly — the real challenge lies not in the bloom itself, but in whether the weather will allow it to mature into a fruitful harvest.
