One semifinal is done. The other now takes centre stage. Spain dismantled France with a tactical masterclass in Dallas on Tuesday and now await the winner of Wednesday’s blockbuster between defending champions Argentina and England in Atlanta.
Regardless of how Argentina reached the last four, amid refereeing controversies and conspiracy theories, they remain just two victories away from becoming the first nation in 64 years to successfully defend the World Cup. More importantly, they continue carrying the final World Cup dream of Lionel Messi.
Standing in their way is England, an opponent they have not faced in international football for 21 years and at the World Cup for 24.
At first glance, the semifinal appears straightforward: Argentina have Messi, England have youth, athleticism and momentum. In reality, it will be decided elsewhere.
Can England disrupt Argentina’s midfield before Messi dictates the game? Or will Argentina once again control the rhythm long enough for their captain to produce one decisive moment?
Stop Messi or stop the supply?
Every opponent at this World Cup has wrestled with the same question, how do you stop Lionel Messi?
England have clearly considered it too. Thomas Tuchel even admitted he has thought about using “old-school man-marking”, although he stopped short of confirming whether he would actually deploy it.
The smarter solution, however, may not be marking Messi at all. It may be cutting off the players who supply him.
Messi has scored eight goals and provided two assists during this World Cup, but his influence begins much earlier. Leandro Paredes, Rodrigo De Paul, Enzo Fernandez and Alexis Mac Allister establish control through short passing, rotations and numerical superiority before Messi receives possession in dangerous central pockets.
England cannot allow that sequence to unfold. Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson and Jude Bellingham must resist the temptation to chase Argentina’s midfielders individually. If England dominate central midfield and deny Messi clean service, they eliminate much of Argentina’s attacking rhythm before it reaches their captain.
England possess the profile to do exactly that. Rice provides defensive stability, Anderson relentless energy, while Bellingham has covered more ground than almost any midfielder left in the tournament.
Messi no longer dominates games through constant dribbling. Instead, he dominates moments. One pass. One free-kick. One perfectly timed movement. That is why strict man-marking carries enormous risk. Containing Messi is no longer about following him everywhere. It is about denying him the moments that matter.
England’s width could be decisive
Argentina’s system naturally narrows the pitch. Scaloni asks Nahuel Molina and Nicolas Tagliafico to provide width, meaning space frequently opens behind them whenever possession changes hands. That is where England must attack.
Tuchel’s side have looked at their best throughout this tournament when stretching opponents through wide areas. Bukayo Saka, Anthony Gordon and overlapping full-backs have consistently delivered dangerous crosses, while Harry Kane’s movement creates room for runners arriving from midfield.
Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martinez are aggressive defenders who prefer stepping out to confront attackers. Quick switches into wide positions, followed by diagonal runs from Bellingham or Gordon, could expose those spaces repeatedly.
Set pieces may prove decisive
Argentina have scored 16 goals in this World Cup, the most of any team. Five have come directly from set pieces. Three other attacking sequences that ended in goals also originated from corners or indirect dead-ball situations. Messi’s outswinging deliveries, particularly from the left, have been among the tournament’s most dangerous weapons.
England, meanwhile, possess arguably the strongest aerial side remaining in the competition and have consistently threatened through crosses, headers and second balls.
England cannot retreat
If there is one lesson Tuchel should take from Argentina’s victories over Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland, it is this: Do not defend too deep.
Argentina are exceptionally comfortable facing compact defensive blocks. They patiently recycle possession until one through ball, long-range effort or set piece unlocks the game. Perhaps even more dangerous is their mentality when trailing. They simply do not panic.
Eight of Argentina’s 16 goals have arrived after the 80th minute, highlighting their ability to wear opponents down. Should England score first and retreat, they would be playing directly into Argentina’s hands. Instead, they must continue pressing high.
Kane’s intelligent pressing, supported by Bellingham and England’s wide players, could force turnovers before Argentina settle into possession and before Messi becomes influential.
Where the semifinal will be won
If Argentina establish midfield control, they will gradually pull England apart until Messi finds the decisive opening.
If England bypass the congested centre, attack quickly down the flanks and pin Argentina’s full-backs deeper, they possess the pace, physicality and aerial strength to expose one of the tournament’s more vulnerable defences.
Even a lead may not be enough. Argentina famously overturned a two-goal deficit against Egypt by scoring three times in 13 frantic minutes, once again demonstrating why they remain the defending champions.
With Emiliano Martinez always looming should penalties arrive, England cannot simply survive. They must dictate. Press high. Stretch Argentina wide. Disrupt Messi’s supply line.
Because against the reigning champions, merely containing Messi is rarely enough. To reach a first World Cup final since 1966, England must control the game before Messi controls it for them.
