Hyderabad: A policy paper by Professor Jayashankar Telangana Agricultural University (PJTAU) has warned that global rice prices could surge by 30-50 per cent if El Nino-induced production losses coincide with precautionary stockpiling by major importing nations, despite prices currently remaining at multi-year lows.The study says a combination of geopolitical uncertainties, rising fertiliser and energy costs, and the threat of El Nino impacting key rice-growing regions in Asia has created significant upside risks for the global rice market even though supplies remain comfortable at present.The university has outlined three possible scenarios for the global rice market. In the best-case scenario, rice prices could rise by 10-20 per cent if production remains largely stable and govts avoid export restrictions and panic buying.Under the most likely scenario, prices could increase by 30-50 per cent, driven by moderate production losses and precautionary stockpiling by major rice-importing countries in Southeast Asia.In the worst-case scenario, involving severe production shocks, widespread export restrictions and panic buying, global rice prices could double, rising by 100 per cent or more, the study said.The policy paper was authored by Samarendu Mohanty, founding director of the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture and Development Studies, and PJTAU vice-chancellor Professor Aldas Janaiah.The authors said international cooperation, transparent trade policies and timely market information would be critical to maintaining stability in the global rice market if El Nino conditions intensify in the coming months.The paper noted that El Nino events have historically reduced rice yields in South and Southeast Asia by 2-5 per cent, while severe episodes have caused losses of 8-10 per cent due to moisture stress during critical crop growth stages. Such production losses in major exporting countries could quickly tighten global supplies and trigger sharp price increases, it said.The study highlighted India’s pivotal role in stabilising global rice markets because of its dominance in production, exports and public foodgrain stocks. However, it cautioned that any move to restrict exports in response to domestic concerns could significantly amplify price pressures in international markets.It also warned that precautionary imports by countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines could further tighten supplies if fears of production losses intensify during an El Nino year.At the same time, rising fertiliser prices, higher energy costs and geopolitical tensions could increase production costs and add further upward pressure on rice prices.The policy paper advised rice-importing countries to strengthen supply arrangements well in advance, diversify import sources and avoid panic buying to reduce the risk of a global food price crisis similar to the one witnessed in 2007-08.
