Hyderabad: The ministry of earth sciences has projected a potentially weaker 2026 southwest monsoon, with early signs pointing towards the development of El Niño conditions during the season. While most parts of the south peninsular India may remain relatively stable, Telangana is likely to receive lower rainfall compared to last year’s surplus.The state had recorded 33% excess rainfall in 2025, following another above-normal year in 2024, while 2023 saw normal precipitation. This year, however, forecasts indicate a dip, particularly across northern, western and parts of central Telangana, including Hyderabad. Southern and eastern districts are expected to receive near-normal rainfall.Explaining the evolving weather pattern, K Nagaratna, head of the Meteorological Centre in Hyderabad, said, “Weak La Niña-like conditions are currently transitioning to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific. The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) indicates a possible shift towards El Niño during the southwest monsoon season.”Nagaratna noted that sea surface temperatures across the Pacific and Indian Oceans play a critical role in shaping the monsoon and said the India Meteorological Department is closely tracking these changes in phases.Earlier projections had suggested a split seasonal trend. Wetter conditions between late Feb and April helped moderate temperatures across the state. However, meteorologists now warn of a sharp shift from May, with drier conditions likely to persist into early June.“This phase could bring intense and prolonged heatwaves,” said V Rama Rao, senior meteorologist at the Telangana Development Planning Society, drawing parallels with the extreme summer of 2023. “While some rainfall activity may occur during summer, it does not rule out severe heat later.”Weather experts caution that the latter half of the season could be particularly challenging. “El Niño appears to be evolving, and if it strengthens, the monsoon may remain below normal,” said Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather. “A weaker monsoon typically leads to more intense heatwaves, and with global temperatures rising, the impact of El Niño is becoming more pronounced.”
