Assembly elections remain crucial test for INDIA Bloc amid BJP’s expansionist Plans

New Delhi: This round of elections is a key test for the larger anti-BJP Opposition parties in four states and a Union Territory. For many allies of the INDIA bloc, which sprung an impressive runner’s up show in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and yet lost momentum when BJP and allies consolidated by winning the key electoral battles of Haryana, Maharashtra, Delhi and Bihar, this bout offers an opportunity and a challenge to hold on to some of their states such as West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The outcome of this lap of polls can also have a bearing on the internal equations of the bloc and on the standing of its key leaders such as Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, MK Stalin and Pinarayi Vijayan. This election is also taking place in the backdrop of these leaders vehemently opposing SIR.

Also read: Election dates 2026: EC announces poll dates for five assemblies; West Bengal in two phases

Elections in West Bengal and Kerala will see some INDIA bloc parties slug it out against each other: TMC vs Congress vs Left in West Bengal and CPI(M)-led LDF vs Congress-led UDF in Kerala.

Elections in Assam, where Congress is predominantly locked in a direct fight with BJP, which is attempting a hattrick of poll wins, will also be seen as yet another test of the grand old party’s capacity to defeat BJP in a direct duel and to shrug off the image of the party winning mostly against non-BJP rivals and that it requires to piggyback regional biggies to withstand saffron challenges. On this count, TMC-BJP direct fight in West Bengal acquires additional significance. For BJP, retaining Assam and wresting West Bengal form a crucial electoral and ideological goal nationally. For INDIA bloc, the outcome in West Bengal can either boost or douse Banerjee’s national ambition.

In Tamil Nadu, the ruling DMK along with allies Congress, Left and others face a key incumbency test as the MK Stalin government attempts to retain power, something that none of the previous DMK governments have been successful in doing. BJP coming together with AIADMK (and some others) to make an all-out bid to tap incumbency issues of DMK rule also marks a course-correction after their unproductive experience of fighting 2024 Lok Sabha polls separately. But one factor being closely watched this time is whether Tamil people, who made Joseph Vijay Chandrashekhar the super star ‘Vijay’ of celluloid, will also gift him an electoral blockbuster in his maiden electoral quest with his recently formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam. Which way Vijay will cut in this poll is a factor that has already muddied the traditional bipolar electoral math and grammar of the state.Also Read: West Bengal election date 2026: Bengal to vote in two phases on April 23, 29; counting on May 4
In Kerala, this is a do-or-die battle for both the ruling LDF and Opposition UDF even as BJP tries to make inroads. For the Left, given Kerala now is the only surviving port of power, the Pinarayi Vijayan government’s bid for an unprecedented hattrick victory against incumbency issues is a test for survival. For UDF, after a decade of warming Opposition benches, this is a must-win poll to get back in power or face larger existential challenges.

In neighbouring Puducherry, CM N Rangasamy-led All India NR Congress’s bid to retain power with ally BJP faces incumbency test amid Congress-DMK alliance’s serious attempt to wrest the UT.