BENGALURU: A likely transition from La Niña to El Niño this year has raised concerns of below-normal rainfall in Karnataka, prompting early signals of a shift in farm strategy towards short-duration crops. Experts say the outlook, while preliminary, could influence sowing decisions as the early kharif season begins in mid-April, ahead of the main cycle in June. Dr MN Thimmegowda, professor and head of agrometeorology at University of Agricultural Sciences, GKVK, said the concern stems from the “El Niño–southern oscillation”, a climate pattern linked to temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean. “From 2019, we were under the La Niña effect. This year, we are shifting towards El Niño,” he said, explaining that warming in the eastern Pacific reduces rainfall across parts of Asia, including India. He cautioned that the assessment remains tentative, with clearer forecasts expected later in April. For farmers, the immediate implication could be a move towards crops that require less water and mature faster. Agriculture department officials said in case of a rainfall deficit, advisories typically favour short-duration crops such as leafy vegetables and pulses like green gram and horse gram, which can be harvested in under 70 days. These are seen as safer alternatives to longer-duration crops such as tur, groundnut, jowar, ragi, and maize, which require over 90 days and are more vulnerable to prolonged dry spells. GT Puthra, director of agriculture, said there is no formal declaration of drought yet. “We follow crop contingency plans prepared by ICAR’s Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, which are district-specific and activated during floods or droughts,” he said. Even as the seasonal outlook evolves, the govt said it is focusing on structural measures to mitigate water stress. Relief commissioner and principal secretary Munish Moudgil said investments are being scaled up to improve water availability. “Last year, Rs 100 crore was allocated from the disaster mitigation fund for farm ponds. This year, Rs 150 crore has been provided to farmers through the agriculture department to create water-harvesting structures,” Moudgil said. He added that large-scale projects are underway to augment groundwater recharge, including a Rs 500-crore initiative to channel treated sewage water to Kolar and a Rs 650-crore project in parts of Chikkaballapur to supply water to dry regions. While the final monsoon outlook will determine the scale of impact, officials indicated that contingency planning and crop diversification could play a key role in cushioning farmers against potential rainfall variability.
