At the centre of the crisis is a razor-thin numbers game in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly, where the majority mark stands at 118. Vijay’s alliance currently claims support of 116 MLAs, just two short of forming government, keeping the entire transition process on edge.
Governor holds back final nod amid missing support letter
The suspense intensified after Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Arlekar reportedly held back the official swearing-in announcement, awaiting a formal letter of support from the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK).
Although Vijay met the Governor for the third time in as many days and submitted signatures claiming backing from 116 MLAs, the absence of confirmed additional support has delayed the process.
Earlier in the day, expectations were high that Vijay would take oath at 11 am on Saturday after reports suggested that VCK and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) had extended support, pushing the alliance comfortably past the majority mark. However, that arithmetic collapsed within hours.
IUML denies support, VCK demand triggers fresh deadlock
In a major setback, IUML clarified that it has not extended unconditional support to the Vijay-led formation and will continue its alignment with the DMK.
This reversal has significantly altered the political equation, bringing the numbers back into a hung-like situation despite earlier optimism within TVK circles.Meanwhile, negotiations with VCK have added another layer of complexity. Sources indicate that the party has demanded the Deputy Chief Minister’s post for its leader Thol. Thirumavalavan. However, TVK is said to have offered the Urban Affairs portfolio instead, resulting in a stalemate.
The delay in securing VCK’s final consent is now seen as the key reason behind the Governor withholding formal approval for the oath ceremony.
Rapid alliances, shifting loyalties
Vijay’s political rise has been backed in recent days by swift endorsements from Congress, CPI and CPI(M). The Left parties, in particular, had submitted written support letters, citing the need for a stable government following a fractured verdict.
However, the situation remains fluid as traditional allies of the DMK are now playing a decisive role in government formation talks. The VCK, CPI and CPI(M) were earlier part of the DMK alliance, making their shifting position politically significant.
Parallel political moves and counter-strategies
In a parallel development, AMMK chief T.T.V. Dhinakaran met the Governor and extended support of his party’s lone MLA to AIADMK leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami, arguing that the AIADMK should be given a chance to form government instead.
Adding further intrigue, political circles are abuzz with speculation that AIADMK and DMK—Tamil Nadu’s two dominant Dravidian parties—may be exploring backchannel discussions to block Vijay’s entry into power. Combined, the two parties currently hold 47 and 59 seats respectively.
Even if a broader coalition involving DMK, AIADMK, and their respective allies comes together, the combined strength is still estimated at around 115 MLAs—still short of the 118-mark—keeping the Assembly arithmetic extremely tight and unpredictable.
What happens next?
As of now, the Governor is expected to take a final call only after clarity emerges on VCK’s position. Without the missing support letter, the oath-taking ceremony remains on hold, despite full-scale preparations at the venue.
Inside political circles, three possibilities are being discussed:
- VCK formally joining TVK with revised ministerial terms
- A last-minute alliance reconfiguration involving DMK and AIADMK
- A delay leading to fresh negotiations over the weekend
For now, Tamil Nadu’s political future remains suspended in uncertainty, with all eyes on whether Vijay can bridge the final gap—or whether the numbers game forces yet another unexpected twist in the state’s power transition.
