Nagpur: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday released its long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon, indicating a likelihood of below-normal rainfall across Central India, including Vidarbha, during the season lasting June to September.The forecast is expected to have implications for agriculture and water management planning across the Central Indian belt, particularly in rain-fed regions like Vidarbha.IMD’s probability maps show large parts of Central India and eastern Maharashtra in yellow to orange shades, suggesting a 45% to over 65% probability of below-normal rainfall.The assessment places Central India among the regions where deficient rainfall is more likely, even as some other parts of the country, including sections of Northwest, Northeast and South Peninsular India, may receive normal to above-normal precipitation.The regional outlook aligns with the national monsoon forecast for 2026, which has been pegged at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), categorised as below normal. IMD noted that the probability of “below normal” (90%-95% of LPA) and “deficient” (less than 90% of LPA) rainfall combined stands at around 66%, significantly higher than the climatological likelihood. Meteorological factors cited for the expected trend include the likely development of El Niño conditions during the monsoon season. While the equatorial Pacific is currently in an ENSO-neutral phase, models indicate a strong possibility of El Niño formation. El Niño is warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that often weakens India’s monsoon. La Niña is cooling of the same Pacific waters that usually strengthens the Indian monsoon. ENSO is a climate cycle that includes both El Niño and La Niña phases and influences global weather patterns.Additionally, neutral conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with any shift towards a positive phase, which can sometimes offset El Niño effects, expected only towards the latter part of the season.IMD also pointed to slightly below-normal snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia during Jan to March 2026, noting its inverse relationship with the Indian summer monsoon.
