Around half of universities in the United Kingdom expect to face sanctions under new visa compliance rules, as tighter immigration controls begin to impact international student enrolments, according to a survey by the British Universities International Liaison Association.
As per the survey, 70% of institutions reported a drop in postgraduate enrolments in January 2026 compared to the previous year, while overall enrolments have declined by 31%.
The fall comes ahead of stricter visa measures set to be introduced in June.
Higher compliance pressure
Under the new system, universities will be assessed through a traffic-light framework based on visa compliance. Institutions must keep visa rejection rates below 4% to secure a “green” rating. Those marked “amber” could face immediate sanctions, including limits on student recruitment.
BUILA said half of the universities surveyed expect to receive at least one non-green rating, despite taking steps to reduce risks. These include suspending recruitment from certain countries and tightening admission processes.
According to the data, there is a sharp decline in enrolments from key international markets. Around 66% reported lower enrolments from India; about 82% of universities reported a drop in student numbers from Pakistan, with some seeing declines of up to three-quarters; while 65% saw declines from Bangladesh.
Universities tighten checks as visa refusals rise
Institutions have also introduced stricter checks, including higher financial requirements, credibility interviews and increased deposit demands for applicants.
Andrew Bird, chair of BUILA, said, “The UK already operates one of the toughest student visa compliance regimes in the world, and our members fully support protecting its integrity.”
“But the government keeps shifting the goalposts. The proposed traffic-light system is being implemented far more harshly than originally intended. An ‘amber’ rating should serve as a warning, not trigger recruitment sanctions.”
The survey also found that 60% of universities reported higher visa refusal rates during the January intake, indicating stricter scrutiny by authorities.
BUILA has called on UK Visas and Immigration to provide clearer reasons for visa refusals and improve transparency in decision-making. It has also sought an early warning system to help institutions respond in real time.
Bird warned that genuine students could be “driven away”, raising concerns about long-term damage to the UK higher education sector’s global position.
