A second straight term for Stalin would see him go one better on his father, DMK founder M Karunanidhi. A whittled-down ADMK would be hoping for thrust from tie-up with BJP, while Vijay’s TVK can pose a worry for all.In the absence of any last-minute surprises, the assembly elections in Tamil Nadu will be a three-cornered contest featuring the DMK-led front, an NDA anchored by AIADMK, and actor Vijay’s TVK. The Tamil nationalist NTK, headed by Seeman, forms a fourth group that can play spoilsport for any of the other three.
Two questions dominate the pre-poll scenario: First, can Stalin win a second consecutive term — something his father M Karunananidhi couldn’t, and M G Ramachandran and J Jayalalithaa could — and, second, how many votes and seats will Vijay’s party win? DMK, led by CM MK Stalin, enters the contest looking confident, thanks to a cohesive and comprehensive alliance, a slew of welfare schemes, and a party machinery that is strong at the grassroots.The opposition front, led by ADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS), has broadened its reach with the inclusion of the Vanniyar-friendly PMK and ADMK splinter AMMK, besides the Congress breakaway TMC, even though cohesion and campaign strength remain concerns. TVK, which has so far not added an ally, has introduced an element of uncertainty by challenging the state’s bipolar politics. Actorturned-TVK president Vijay continues to be one of the biggest crowd pullers in the state, but there would be few who would be backing him to emerge as the winning horse. On alliance arithmetic, DMK has the upper hand. Stalin has taken a leaf out of his father’s book, stitching together an alliance of 21 parties that includes Congress, VCK (Dalit base), IUML and some other Muslim groups, CPI, CPM, MDMK, and the late actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK. DMK is going to town with its welfare programmes such as the free breakfast scheme for schoolchildren and monthly financial aid for women. It also projects a stable leadership under Stalin, who has positioned himself as a defender of federalism and the state’s rights. The alliance, however, has to contend with anti-incumbency, especially on the issues of crime and corruption. Several senior DMK politicians, including sitting and former ministers, face corruption charges. The govt would be wary over its law-and-order record, with the opposition targeting Stalin over cases of murder and sexual assault. Govt has also been accused of not doing enough to curb drug peddling. ADMK’s challenges appear more complex. The party has not won any major election since the death of Jayalalithaa in Dec 2016 (the year she won a second consecutive term). EPS’s first struggle was to keep the party intact, after he’d expelled several netas, including former Jayalalaithaa aide V K Sasikala, her nephew TTV Dhinakaran, and former CM O Panneerselvam (OPS). Senior ADMK leader KA Sengottaiyan recently joined TVK. OPS, after quitting NDA as an ‘independent ally’, left the alliance and found refuge in DMK, while Sasikala has floated her own outfit and plans to field candidates in Thevar-dominated southern districts, which spells a threat to ADMK’s prospects. While the inclusion of PMK and AMMK has improved its numerical strength, NDA doesn’t measure up to the DMK-led alliance when it comes to representation of different communities. The opposition’s political messaging revolves around anti-incumbency and nepotism (with Stalin’s son Udhayanidhi being projected as the successor). While PM Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah have spoken about forming an NDA govt in the state, EPS has insisted that ADMK will form a govt on its own.The two parties have yet to decide on the seat-sharing formula for the elections ahead. However, ADMK can count on its grassroots network and is also banking on its allies’ regional strengths — BJP in Kanyakumari district and some western parts, PMK in northern districts, and AMMK in southern parts.Vijay, meanwhile, remains the ‘X’ factor, though surveys regarding his TVK’s vote-getting potential have thrown up varied estimates. The stampede at his roadshow in Karur that killed 41 people on Sept 27 last year proved a speedbreaker for TVK’s campaign.While momentum slowed down for the party, Vijay’s reluctance to meet the victims’ families raised questions about his ability to face up to political challenges. CBI, investigating the stampede, has been summoning the actor to Delhi, triggering speculation that BJP is using the case to pressure him to join NDA. Vijay’s ‘last’ movie, ‘Jana Nayagan’, remains canned well after its scheduled release date as CBFC is yet to clear it for screening. Third-front experiments are not new to Tamil Nadu politics. The most recent example was actor-politician Vijayakanth’s DMDK, which eventually faded, leaving the state’s bipolar politics intact. However, Vijay’s political venture is considered different, given his massive fan base, particularly among youths across the state. There are also indications that a section of Christian voters, who earlier supported DMK, could shift towards TVK. In the end, this election may not just decide who forms the next govt in Tamil Nadu, but also determine if the politically bipolar state will see the emergence of a third alternative.
