This scenario needs a major strategic planning within the BJP-RSS for the future course of time, so that things move positively in favour of the BJP and the RSS ideology
ASHWANI KUMAR CHRUNGOO
FRAGRANCE OF IDEAS
Consequent upon the declaration of the results of the five state elections in eastern and southern parts of India recently, it has become customary to analyse the overall political scenario of the southern region, especially the two states, namely Tamil Nadu and Kerala. This is particularly so because these two states have given contrasting results as compared to the results of the two eastern states, i.e. Assam and West Bengal.
While Assam and West Bengal gave sweeping results in favour of the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), the two states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu have a story altogether different from the other two states. The results of the Union Territory of Puducherry have maintained the status quo and need no special mention here in this write-up.
The southern states, excepting Karnataka and to some extent Telangana, have a lukewarm history of the BJP’s presence. There is no doubt that the RSS started its activity in the southern region well before the partition of the country, but it gained momentum only in the 1960s and 1970s. Yadav Rao Joshi was a prominent senior RSS activist-pracharak who infused new blood in the organisational structure of RSS in the southern states. His headquarters was in Bangalore from the very inception, so Karnataka got an edge so far as the organisational expansion was concerned.
On the basis of the strength of the RSS organisation in Karnataka, Joshi planned the expansion of the organisation in other southern states as well. In the 1960s and 1970s, most of the southern states were deeply influenced by the South film industry mania, Dravidian politics, left-oriented ideological leanings and also by the language and regional priorities.
Congress had started losing ground in the entire southern region slowly and steadily, and the regional forces and the left parties filled up the vacuum created by the Congress’s absenteeism. This kind of situation had deeply impacted the socio-political scenario of the entire southern region.
It was in this kind of an adverse atmosphere that RSS, under the stewardship of Joshi, made attempts to extend its arms in the southern states. There is no doubt in the fact that Karnataka proved to be a better fertile ground as compared to the other states in the southern region. Joshi was joined by another senior RSS pracharak, H.V.Sheshadri (who later became the Secretary General of RSS), and they, along with the other scores of pracharaks and dedicated activists, created a great edifice for RSS to grow at a rapid speed in the Karnataka state.
The strength gained by RSS helped the Bhartiya Jan Sangh (BJS) initially and later the BJP to take their roots deep down the earth. This created the BJP as a force to be reckoned with in the state of Karnataka in the 1980s and 1990s, and it made the BJP the main political pillar of the state politics eventually. Technically speaking, it was Jagan Nath Rao Joshi, a senior BJS-BJP leader, who planned the BJP’s expansion in the southern states with great success.
However, this sort of privilege, as in Karnataka, couldn’t be achieved or enjoyed by the RSS and BJP in the other states. Due to the immense work done by the thousands of activists of the two organisations in these states and also the sacrifices made by the hundreds of activists, especially in the state of Kerala, the RSS and BJP made moderate inroads in the society therein. Slowly and steadily, both these organisations started to make major inroads in the 1990s, but these inroads couldn’t make the BJP the main political force in any state other than Karnataka.
Over the years from the 1990s to 2010s, the BJP was able to emerge as a big political force in the states of Telangana, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Pudduchery and Tamil Nadu. In Telangana, the BJP took the position of a major political quarter in the state, and has been able to catch votes to the tune of around 35% in the state.
In Kerala also, the party has achieved 10% plus votes consistently for the last twenty years now. Even in the state of Tamil Nadu, the BJP was able to get 11% votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In Andhra Pradesh, it is in a formidable coalition with the TDP and the Janasena Party of Pawan Kalyan and is in a comfortable political position in the given situation.
The way the election results came forth in Kerala and Tamil Nadu this time, it should bring all key figures in the BJP and RSS in the southern region to the main round-table to chalk out a plan to make sure that the BJP emerges as a bigger political force in the next round of elections.
RSS’s role is the master key in this whole arrangement. It can make the socio-cultural ground in these states more fertile by its groundwork so that the ideology and appeal of the BJP is welcome, particularly in two social groups, i.e. youth & women. These should be hence the target areas for both the RSS and the BJP.
There is a visible impact of the BJP’s immense victory and performances post 2024 Lok Sabha elections on the minds and intellect of the people of the country, in general and the youth in particular. For some years now, the participation of women in the political and electoral processes has increased in a profound manner, thanks to various welfare schemes of the government of India, especially designed for women and the youth.
People in general, in the current socio-political scenario, recognise the fact with a welcome note that the BJP is now having power in most of the states of India, besides having it also at the centre. More than 70% of the population and area of the nation comes under the BJP-NDA-ruled states, and it is counting.
This scenario needs a major strategic planning within the BJP-RSS for the future course of time, so that things move positively in favour of the BJP and the RSS ideology. In Kerala this time, the BJP has been able to win three seats in the Assembly elections for the first time in its history. This is surely a significant development. The lesson this time for the BJP in the state would also be in terms of the role played by the Christian community in the state.
The Churches, though having some sort of understanding with the BJP in the state before the polls, didn’t actually come true in the polls. The BJP needs to focus on the 55% of the Hindu population in the state, and it is here that the RSS also has a big role to play. Needless to say, 11% of votes and winning three seats in the assembly this time, besides having won one Lok Sabha seat in the 2024 elections, is a good seed-fortune to invest in the future of the state.
In Tamil Nadu, after having got 11% plus votes in the Lok Sabha elections while going solo, engaging in alliance with AIADMK this time was not a great decision. Big players make big mistakes, but one turns out to be smart enough to learn from the same mistakes. In Tamil Nadu, for all practical purposes, Dravidian politics and governance have surely taken a pause, but the victory of Joseph Vijay’s TVK has opened the gates for three-cornered contests in future.
The BJP should make all attempts to convert this into a four-cornered contest for the future in practical terms, and that is possible only when it decides to go alone in the state. Here, K. Annamalai is surely the key for the BJP. In addition to this, the social base of RSS needs expansion in the state. Here also, the BJP should concentrate on 87% plus Hindu population in the state, notwithstanding the influencing factors of caste and language that dominate the state politics.
In both these two states, the RSS-BJP-VHP combine has a sound cadre base, but what is needed is social expansion at the grassroots level. In Telangana also, this combine has a very strong cadre base in the state, and its social base is also bound to expand further than it is at this point in time.
In all these three states, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Telangana, the BJP has great chances to develop into a major political force in case it goes alone there or creates alliances under its leadership. BJP needs to be seen by the general masses as a distinct political party with a difference. The people need to be convinced in all these three states about the BJP’s ability to emerge as an alternative in the respective states in the coming months and years.
What Southern states need now is that the top leadership and the organisational mechanism of RSS & BJP should put them on their extra-active radar system. It needs consistent and concerted efforts and an undiluted focus. BJP shouldn’t join any alliance in these three states where the leadership of the alliance is in someone else’s hands. In the eventuality of any alliance, the BJP should be the leader of the alliance. The road for the BJP in Karnataka is surely reassuring so far as the next assembly elections are concerned. This will surely prove a boosting dose for the three other states under discussion.
It is for the top leadership of the RSS and BJP to take the right decision in this regard and move forward confidently and with targets in mind. It might prove a time-consuming process, but this is the only process that promises the BJP a bright future in the South and the people of the South a dependable alternative with a national outlook and commitment that has a trusted leadership with a promising worldview.
(The author is a senior BJP and KP leader, human rights defender and columnist and can be reached at: ashwanikc2012@gmail.com)
