While Pawar’s camp has described the visit as routine, allies Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress have raised questions about the timing of the hospitalisation as it has complicated negotiations among the three partners for the solitary seat ahead of the March 16 polls.
In April, Rajya Sabha stint will end for Pawar, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Priyanka Chaturvedi, Fauzia Khan of NCP (SP), Ramdas Athawale of RPI (Athawale), BJP’s Bhagwat Karad, Congress’s Rajani Patil and NCP’s Dhairysheel Patil.
The polling for the seven seats has been scheduled for March 16. The last day for filing nominations is March 5.
A senior Shiv Sena (UBT) functionary recalled that during the previous Rajya Sabha cycle, when six seats were at stake, Pawar sought the backing of the then-undivided Shiv Sena to push through an additional candidate.
“It was understood that if the Sena accommodated Sharad Pawar, then the favour would be returned. However, after the 2024 assembly elections, the Opposition strength has been so badly reduced that the combine can ensure only one seat. If Pawar saheb insists, we will be in an awkward position and may have to support him,” the leader said.
In the 288-member assembly, the BJP-led ruling Mahayuti enjoys a clear edge with 132 BJP MLAs, 57 from the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and 41 from the NCP. The Opposition benches comprise 20 MLAs from the Shiv Sena (UBT), 16 from Congress and 10 from NCP (SP), besides smaller parties and independents.However, the BJP has lost an MLA to prolonged illness, while former Dy CM and NCP chief Ajit Pawar was killed in an air crash last month, reducing the House strength to 286.
In such a scenario, opposition leaders admit that stretching beyond one assured Rajya Sabha berth would be politically reckless.
Numbers are only part of the anxiety. Another Shiv Sena (UBT) leader pointed to the unresolved question of a possible merger between the two NCP factions.
“Earlier, the MVA comprised the undivided Sena and NCP. Now both parties have split. In our case, everyone is clear that there will be no merger between the two rival Senas. The NCP, however, does not have that clarity. There have been instances of leaders from both sides coordinating. In the recent Zilla Parishad polls, NCP (SP) candidates contested and won on the NCP symbol,” he said.
If both NCPs merge, it could directly affect Sena UBT’s prospects in the biennial legislative council elections, he said.
“We are already reduced. If we lose Sharad Pawar and his party’s support because of a merger, how do we elect our own candidates?” he asked, articulating a fear that a Rajya Sabha nomination could alter the balance of power.
Pawar’s health has also entered the conversation.
“He (Pawar) has been hospitalised twice recently and now again for a ‘routine’ check-up. How much can we expect from him as a people’s representative if health remains a concern? Instead, giving the only winnable seat to Shiv Sena (UBT) or Congress makes strategic sense,” the leader said.
The parties have each staked their claims to the lone Rajya Sabha seat with firmness.
A few days ago, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Aaditya Thackeray asserted that his party had the “first right” over the seat.
“Our party’s clear opinion is that this seat belongs to Shiv Sena (UBT). If you ask our leaders, MLAs or MPs, everyone’s opinion is the same. We are speaking as a party,” he said, amid speculation that Pawar could seek renomination.
With Sena UBT’s numbers in the assembly, the seat belongs to our party, he said, signalling that the fold, with 20 MLAs, the highest among the three MVA constituents, is unlikely to yield easily.
The Congress has made an equally pointed pitch. Its Legislature Party leader, Vijay Wadettiwar, said that as a national party, it has proposed that the seat be allotted to it.
“Though both the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Congress have laid claim to the seat, the MVA will contest the election unitedly. The candidate will be finalised only with the consent of all three parties,” Wadettiwar said after an alliance meeting.
State Congress chief Harshvardhan Sapkal has also floated a broader bargain – that the Rajya Sabha seat could go to Congress in exchange for MVA backing the re-election of Uddhav Thackeray to the Legislative Council in the next round. Thackeray had entered the Council in early 2020 after taking over as chief minister in November 2019.
From the NCP (SP) camp, however, the messaging has been unambiguous. Pawar’s daughter and Lok Sabha MP Supriya Sule said in Delhi, “It is everyone’s wish that Pawar saheb should go to the Rajya Sabha.”
Sule said that she would discuss the matter with Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and senior leader Rahul Gandhi, noting that NCP (SP) leaders had already met Congress representatives and sought an appointment with Uddhav Thackeray.
A senior political analyst observed that Sule’s remarks were unlikely to have been made without Pawar’s concurrence. “If she has said this, it is with his permission. It indicates that Pawar is looking at another term in the Rajya Sabha irrespective of health concerns,” the analyst said.
