Bengaluru: As Karnataka stands on the brink of yet another high-stakes political transition, an uncomfortable question is haunting the Congress leadership in New Delhi: Is Rahul Gandhi on the verge of repeating the political miscalculation that permanently changed the Congress party’s social equation in Karnataka more than three decades ago?In 1990, the abrupt removal of veteran Lingayat leader and then Chief Minister Veerendra Patil by then Congress president Rajiv Gandhi became one of the decisive turning points in Karnataka politics. Patil, who was battling serious health issues, was unceremoniously, and without consultation, replaced by the Congress high command at the Bengaluru airport in a move many Lingayats perceived as humiliating and disrespectful to one of their tallest leaders.The fallout of that episode was not only bitter, but its political consequences were historic. The Lingayat community — a dominant force in Karnataka’s electoral politics and once a reliable Congress support base in the state — gradually drifted away from the Congress and embraced the BJP, laying the foundation for the saffron party’s eventual rise in Karnataka and southern India.Now, after a gap of more than three decades, the Karnataka Congress finds itself confronting a similarly delicate moment. Unlike the earlier episode, this time the situation does not involve the Lingayat vote bank, but the powerful and decisive AHINDA (minorities, backward classes and Dalits) social coalition strategically devised and nurtured by Siddaramaiah. This large AHINDA electorate across Karnataka has remained the backbone of Siddaramaiah’s political identity and one of the Congress party’s strongest electoral pillars in the state till date.But with growing indications that deputy CM DK Shivakumar could potentially replace Siddaramaiah as part of an alleged power-sharing arrangement, strong discontent is quietly brewing within sections of the Congress. While Shivakumar continues to enjoy strong support within the Vokkaliga community and immense trust within the Gandhi family, several strategists in the century-old party fear that Siddaramaiah’s unceremonious removal midway through the term could send an emotionally damaging message to AHINDA voters — especially if the transition appears forced or politically orchestrated from New Delhi.Unlike Veerendra Patil’s exit, Siddaramaiah’s possible departure may not pave the way for an open rebellion within the Congress. Yet politically, the symbolism could prove equally consequential. Siddaramaiah is not merely a chief minister; for many backward caste communities, he represents social assertion and political empowerment within a state historically dominated by powerful caste elites — Lingayats and Vokkaligas. Even the perception that he was “removed” despite delivering a stable government and welfare-driven administration could deepen resentment among sections of the Congress’ traditional support base. However, political trackers counter it stating: “Unlike the Veerendra Patil incident, here the Congress high command seems to have handled the situation deftly. There has been so much online and offline discussion about leadership-change in the last few months that people have come to terms with the fact that Siddarmaiah would eventually go. It has not come as a shocker to many.”Amid such a scenario, the Congress high command now faces a difficult balancing act. On one side stands Shivakumar — the loyal organisational warrior who waited patiently for his turn and enjoys enormous goodwill within the party’s top brass. On the other stands Siddaramaiah — the mass leader whose AHINDA coalition remains electorally indispensable for the Congress if it hopes to retain power in the 2028 Karnataka Assembly elections.
