Welcome back to another edition of My Take 5. This week we are discussing Russia’s scaled-down May 9 parade due to fears of Ukrainian drone strikes, Poland’s massive defence investment, US & Iran playing cat and mouse with negotiations and Strait of Hormuz, Vietnam President To Lam’s state visit to India, and the massive Balikatan 2026 exercises in the Philippines. So, let’s get to it.Russia’s scaled-back May 9th: There is growing consternation within Russia about the scaled-back May 9 celebrations this year. May 9 celebrates the joint Soviet-Western Alliance victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. The celebrations were disbanded for nearly two decades after the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. But Putin revived it in 2007-2008, once again linking modern-day Russia to its Soviet past. The Soviet symbolism and iconography of the celebrations make it clear that Putin pines to restore the glory of the Soviet Union. Therefore, since its revival, May 9 has been marketed as the biggest holiday in Russia. Thus, for the celebrations to be scaled back drastically this year – for the first time in 20 years, there won’t be any tanks, missiles or junior cadets in the May 9 parade – is a huge psychological blow. And the reason for the dialled down celebrations is the fear of Ukrainian drone attacks during the parade. As I mentioned in last week’s edition, Moscow has announced a unilateral temporary truce from May 8 to May 10 to protect its parade. But Ukraine, rightly, has been sceptical about this – Kyiv instead wants a long-term ceasefire. In fact, to test Moscow’s intentions, President Zelenskyy had proposed a silence period from May 6. Of course, Moscow completely disregarded this and continued attacking Ukraine. In fact, it isn’t even respecting its own May 9 truce. More than 140 Russian strikes on Ukrainian front-line positions were recorded on May 8, along with more than 850 Russian drone strikes. Nonetheless, this whole episode shows how the tables have turned. Remember, this is a Russia that had boasted about taking over Kyiv in three days during the start of its full-scale invasion. More than four years later, it is Russia that is hiding its military platforms for the fear of Ukrainian drone strikes – which have become more extensive and penetrative as Kyiv develops its own drone army. This May 9, the narrative of ‘Russia winning the war’ has taken a massive hit.Update: Following intervention by the US – at Russia’s behest – a three-day ceasefire (May 9-11) was agreed to by Ukraine. The ceasefire comes with one of the largest PoW exchanges in the war – 1,000 on each side – with President Zelenskyy saying that Ukraine was prioritising the return of its soldiers over targeting Moscow’s Red Square during the May 9 parade. An official decree by his office said that he was allowing the parade to go ahead, attaching exact coordinates of Red Square that was to be excluded from Ukrainian drone strikes. Plus, the Russian parade did not showcase any military equipment, instead displaying so-called latest Russian weaponry on video giant screens. Kyiv has clearly won this round.Poland’s massive defence investment: Poland inked a historic Euro 43.7 billion EU defence loan under the European bloc’s SAFE Defence Programme. The low-interest loan is meant to stimulate European defence procurement and the local defence industry, amid ongoing security threats from Russia. Polish PM Donald Tusk said that with this defence loan, Poland was setting the direction for rest of Europe. The latter, there’s no denying, needs to rapidly upgrade its defence capabilities in light of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. And with the US indicating that it will no longer do the heavy lifting in defending Nato in Europe, the American military shield can no longer be taken for granted. True, the gap in defence prowess for Europe without the US is huge. But Europe shouldn’t delude itself into believing this is all temporary, and that things will go back to normal after the Trump administration. Europe must never allow itself to be put in this situation again, where it is at the mercy of American military generosity. It must invest heavily in its own defence. For, Russia is the single-biggest strategic threat to Europe. And Russia’s war against Ukraine is in Europe. Therefore, it is Europe that has to take care of its own defence. Poland, which is clear-eyed about the threat that Russia poses to Europe, is wasting no time in upgrading its defence capabilities. And the new defence loan will help take the Polish defence sector to a whole new level, invest in defence-related jobs, and make Poland and Europe much more safer. World waits for US-Iran end of war: As US waits for Iran’s response to a proposal to end the Iran war, there are growing fears that the two sides are slow-walking into another round of escalation. This past week, there was an exchange of fire between the two sides in the Strait of Hormuz with Iranian military reportedly targeting US naval destroyers. US in turn hit and disabled two tankers seeking to enter Iranian ports in violation of the US-imposed blockade. There were also reports that US had attacked Qeshm Island at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. Plus, Israel is continuing with its attacks against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, and Iran has attacked UAE’s Fujairah oil refinery this week. So, taken together, things are looking grim. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has practically been shut down, oil prices have stayed elevated above $100, and the US-Iran indirect negotiations, at the time of writing, appear to be going nowhere. Vietnam President’s India visit: Vietnam’s President To Lam made his first state visit to India this past week from May 5 to May 11. The visit comes at a crucial time in global geopolitics when big power competition is heating up. This in turn is squeezing middle powers like India and Vietnam. Therefore, it is welcome that India and Vietnam, during President To’s visit, decided to elevate their bilateral ties from a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership to an Enhanced Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, ink 13 MoUs across diverse sectors such as digital payments, rare earth minerals, cultural exchange, healthcare and pharma, and tourism, and set an ambitious target of $25 billion in bilateral trade by 2030. India-Vietnam ties are important in the context of upholding international law, maritime cooperation, securing supply chains, and keeping global commerce flowing. President To’s state visit furthers those objectives. Balikatan 2026: The Balikatan military exercise concluded in the Philippines this week with the participation of a massive 17,000 troops. In fact, this year the annual multilateral exercise featured troops from seven countries – US, the Philippines, Australia, Canada, France, Japan, New Zealand – with the latter four participating with combat troops for the very first time. But what’s really interesting is that this year Balikatan’s exercises focused on territorial defence from sea-borne amphibious assaults. Plus, the location of the exercises in the Luzon Strait which separates the Philippines from Taiwan clearly indicates the target of the drills – China. Therefore, Balikatan 2026 was essentially focused on training to thwart a Chinese amphibious assault on the Philippines or Taiwan – two countries that are in Beijing’s crosshairs. The participating troops were essentially practising blocking the Luzon Strait in the event of a conflict with China. It also goes to show how seriously these countries are taking the Chinese threat. China is the No.1 strategic security challenge in East Asia. And it can only be tackled collectively by regional stakeholders. Therefore, no matter how much Trump tries to push an ‘America First’ approach, with Balikatan 2026 there is recognition within the American military establishment that they need their partners in East Asia to deter China. Given Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, such military-strategic coordination is certainly welcome.
