MUMBAI: Mumbai’s wait for the southwest monsoon is set to continue, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stating that unfavourable large-scale atmospheric conditions have stalled the monsoon’s advance over Maharashtra. The weather bureau on Tuesday has indicated that rainfall activity is likely to remain isolated over the state for the next four to five days, with an increase in rain over the Konkan coast expected only around June 24-25.The monsoon advanced into parts of south Konkan and adjoining south Madhya Maharashtra on June 8 but has made little progress since then. Mumbai has already missed its normal monsoon onset date of June 11.The Regional Meteorological Centre, Mumbai, said the current monsoon flow lacks a strong surge from the Arabian Sea, resulting in weak moisture transport towards the Maharashtra coast and interior regions. It also pointed to a weakened cross-equatorial flow, the absence of low-pressure systems over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, and an inactive Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as key reasons behind the delay.As the monsoon remains stalled, Mumbai continued to experience hot and humid weather on Wednesday, with temperatures remaining significantly above normal.The IMD’s Colaba observatory recorded a maximum temperature of 35.8 degrees Celsius, 4.3 degrees above normal, while Santacruz recorded 34.8 degrees Celsius, 2.7 degrees above normal. Night-time temperatures also remained elevated, with minimum temperatures of 29.2 degrees Celsius at Colaba and 29.3 degrees Celsius at Santacruz, both 3.2 degrees above normal.Rajesh Kapadia of Vagaries of Weather said the monsoon has lost momentum due to an unfavourable combination of atmospheric and oceanic factors.“The monsoon has lost momentum due to an unfavourable combination of atmospheric and oceanic factors. A developing El Niño, suppressed Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), dry air intrusion over the subcontinent, a weak Somali Jet and the absence of low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal have together stalled widespread rainfall. A meaningful revival is likely only when one or more of these drivers strengthen, particularly the MJO, the Somali Jet or the formation of a Bay low-pressure system,” Kapadia said.The IMD said current numerical weather models indicate an increase in rainfall activity over the Konkan belt around June 24-25, following which conditions may become favourable for the monsoon to advance further over the remaining parts of Maharashtra. Until then, residents can expect continued hot and humid conditions with only isolated spells of rainfall.
