The southwest monsoon is likely to make onset over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman & Nicobar Islands towards the end of this week, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for onset of southwest monsoon likely over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman & Nicobar Islands towards the end of this week. The low-pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal lay over the same region at 8.30am of today, the 12 May 2026, with the associated cyclonic circulation extending up to 4.5km above mean sea level. It is likely to become more marked during the next 48hours,” IMD said.
Officials however said they cannot forecast monsoon onset over Kerala immediately. “We are hoping to issue onset forecast for Kerala on or around May 15,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
June 1 is the normal date for monsoon onset in Kerala. The monsoon later advances northwards, usually in surges, and covers the entire country around July 15.
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Monsoon normally advances over northeast India around June 5. It advances over northeast India simultaneously with Kerala when the Bay of Bengal arm of the monsoon is active.
Monsoon onset and quantum of rain is particularly important this year because El Nino conditions are likely to be established during the May-June-July period.
In India, an El Nino is associated with a harsher summer and weaker monsoon. Monsoon rainfall over the country is likely to be below normal at 92% of long period average (LPA) with an error margin of +/-5%, IMD had forecast in April. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole during 1971-2020 is 87cm.
HT reported earlier that ocean temperatures this April were the highest since a record spell of warmth in 2024, climate models showed, as the world’s waters heat up rapidly with a strong El Nino event approaching.
The average global sea surface temperature (SST) this April was 21°C, the second-highest ever in the month, just short of the record 21.04°C in April 2024, when oceans were in the throes of unprecedented heat, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said in a forecast last week.
Heat wave conditions at a few places with severe heat wave conditions in isolated pockets are likely to prevail over west Rajasthan during next six to seven days, IMD warned.
Isolated heat wave conditions are also likely over east Rajasthan and adjoining central India, Gujarat, and Maharashtra during next four to five days.
Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe and south interior Karnataka during next four to five days.
The ministry of earth sciences (MoES) on Tuesday launched two advanced weather forecast products developed under MoES, aimed at delivering hyper-local, impact-based and AI-driven weather services across the country.
The two products launched include, introduction of the first ever Artificial Intelligence (AI) driven system by IMD in the form of AI-enabled “Forecast of Monsoon Advance over Different Parts of the Country” and a “High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecast for Uttar Pradesh” as a pilot service.
