Pune: IMD on Friday released the second half of its updated long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon, with the latest probability maps indicating a below-normal rainfall signal over most parts of Maharashtra during both the June-Sept season and the crucial onset month (June).The India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s updated seasonal rainfall outlook showed a dominant spread of yellow to “orange” shades across large parts of the state, indicating a higher probability of below-normal rainfall during the four-month rainy season. The below-normal signal extends across much of Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha, with only scattered pockets showing chances of normal rainfall.The forecast map suggested that western Maharashtra, including large parts of the rain-shadow region, could remain vulnerable to rainfall deficiency if the forecast pattern holds through the season.The June rainfall outlook, which is critical for monsoon onset and early sowing activity, also showed Maharashtra largely under the below-normal rainfall category. Most districts are shaded in “yellow” tones, indicating that the first month of monsoon may begin on a weaker footing across large parts of the state. However, a few pockets in parts of south Maharashtra show probabilities favouring normal June rainfall.The temperature outlook for June also indicated warmer-than-normal conditions over Maharashtra. The maximum temperature forecast places large parts of the state in the above-normal category, particularly across interior Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha, because of less clouding and below-normal rain.The minimum temperature outlook indicates above-normal night temperatures across much of Maharashtra. The strongest warmer nights signal is visible over southern and interior parts of the state, raising the possibility of persistently warm and humid conditions.While monsoon performance depends on multiple factors, the emerging El Nino signal over the equatorial Pacific remains a key concern. “El Nino generally weakens the monsoon circulation and reduces moisture transport over the Indian region. The updated forecast incorporates the latest oceanic and atmospheric conditions, which are currently indicating a higher probability of below-normal rainfall over several parts of the country, including Maharashtra,” an IMD official said.
