Turn the clock back a couple of weeks, and it looked as if the picture for the top of the IPL table was set. But Punjab Kings’ loss to Mumbai Indians has suddenly placed their campaign in jeopardy, meaning that the race is now wide open to make it to the playoff spots. Two teams have all but tied up their qualification, a third is nearly there, but it’s a three or four-horse race to decide who the final team joining them will be. The golden number is now 18 points.
Delhi Capitals still have a slight chance of qualifying on points alone – they can make it to a maximum of 14 points, which at this stage in time might be enough to qualify solely in fourth place if a lot of other results go their way. They would need extreme fortune with a terrible net run-rate.
RCB, GT all but through; SRH hot on their heels despite heavy loss
At the other end of the qualification table, league leaders RCB and second-placed GT need one more win to officially claim their playoff spot – but even 16 points might enough from this point. Another win for each of these two teams will be enough to guarantee progress, but the target will be finishing in the Top 2.
The biggest challenge to those top spots is currently Sunrisers Hyderabad. They stand two points behind RCB and GT, but with the last game of the season lined up against RCB, they are aware that their fate will likely be in their own hands when it comes to finishing in the Top 2. One win should be enough for qualification alone, but with CSK coming up, a slip could prove to be fatal – they can’t rest easy just yet.
PBKS, KKR need some help
After this group is when it gets tricky. The team with the most outside chance of finishing in the playoffs (barring barely-alive DC) are the Kolkata Knight Riders, who are peaking at the right time. With games against GT, MI, and DC, KKR don’t have the chance to take points off their rivals in the race, but can reach a maximum of 15 points: they would need a handful of results to go their way, but have more wiggle room than DC with a game in hand and an odd number of points.
The mess is in the middle. Punjab’s five-match losing streak has left them on the outside looking in – and as per statistical probability models, they also have a slimmer chance of qualifying than Chennai Super Kings or Rajasthan Royals. With only two games left in the season, Punjab need to win both to reach 17 points – anything short of that likely won’t be enough.
The bad news is, with four teams still capable of reaching 18 points if all the results fall that way, that may not be enough. Even if Punjab win both their remaining games, RCB and GT could finish on 18 points, and as could CSK and RR if they win each of their last three matches: a dramatic four-way tie on 18 points.
RR, CSK precarious, but control their destiny
Rajasthan Royals have a middling NRR and will need three wins from three matches to guarantee progress: two wins might be enough, but they are facing a trio of struggling teams in DC, LSG, and MI. They might back themselves for the results, but this fixture list means they will depend on other results to go their way if they even lose one game.
The team with the most to gain and the most to lose are Chennai Super Kings. With a match against LSG tonight, a loss would suddenly make their campaign a whole lot trickier, but a win will set them up for a dogfight down to the finish line. Their remaining fixtures will be against SRH, which might be a match both go into on level points if CSK can overcome LSG – two wins in those two matches should secure their progression on the basis of other results, but it won’t guarantee it.
