India’s southwest monsoon ended on Wednesday with rainfall 12.6% below normal. The country recorded 759.4 mm of rain during June-September, making it the fourth-lowest monsoon rainfall since 2001, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The monsoon was also marked by sharp regional variations. Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya recorded deficient rainfall continuously through June, July, August and September.
According to a weekly IMD chart, the monsoon had a weak start, with rainfall remaining sharply below normal through much of June and early July. The weekly deficit touched 51.1% in the week ending July 15.
Rains picked up in late July and early August, briefly bringing some relief, but the recovery did not last. Rainfall turned deficient again from mid-August, with the weekly shortfall reaching 36.3% in the week ending September 9. The deficit narrowed towards the end of the season, but not enough to make up for the shortfall built up earlier.
Region-wise, east and northeast India recorded a 25% deficit, south peninsular India was 24% below normal and northwest India 6% below normal, while central India was broadly near normal with a 2% deficit. Arunachal Pradesh recorded a 44% shortfall, Assam and Meghalaya 39%, Bihar 32%, Punjab 41%, Marathwada 39% and Kerala 28%. Overall, 17 meteorological subdivisions, covering 42% of the country’s area, recorded deficient rainfall during the season, while 18 subdivisions covering 53% of the area had normal rainfall.
September rainfall was above normal over northwest and central India, but below normal over southern peninsular, eastern and northeastern parts of the country.
The IMD expects this uneven rainfall pattern to continue into October, which is likely to see rainfall below 85% of the long-period average for the country as a whole.
Most parts of the country are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, although some areas of northwest India and southern peninsular India may receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
The October-December period is also expected to see below-normal rainfall over most parts of the country. The IMD expects some parts of northwest India and southern peninsular India to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the period.
This development comes as El Nino conditions strengthen. “El Nino is likely to peak in November and then begin weakening,” IMD director general M Mohapatra said.
The weather agency also flagged unusually high temperatures during September. The average maximum temperature over India was 32.05°C, the highest for September since 1901, while the average minimum temperature of 23.39°C was the fourth-highest. The mean temperature of 27.72°C was the fifth-highest since 1901.
Continuing the trend, October is likely to see above-normal maximum temperatures over most parts of the country, barring some regions of northeast India and isolated pockets of central and northwest India, where normal maximum temperatures are expected, as per Mohapatra.
Above-normal minimum temperatures are also likely over most parts of the country, except in most parts of northeast India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are expected.
This combination of poor rainfall and high temperatures has implications for soil moisture going into the winter crop season. “The deficient southwest monsoon of 2026, closed with a 13% below the long-period average and 21% below last year, has left large tracts of the country with inadequate soil moisture,” founder of HnbY Deepak Pareek said.
“Combined with the prospect of a dry October under a strengthening El Niño, [this] spells serious trouble for rabi sowing and overall crop prospects,” he added.
The impact, however, is likely to vary by region because the monsoon deficit has been unevenly distributed. Rainfed areas in parts of central, southern peninsular, eastern and northeastern India face greater moisture stress, Pareek said.
The IMD’s district-level data showed that 32% of districts were in the deficient rainfall category in September, while another 16% were in the large-deficient category.
