The poll bugle was sounded in Punjab last week with the results of the local body polls. The Aam Aadmi Party, stung by the defection of seven Rajya Sabha members and a plethora of corruption charges, must be smiling. It won the largest chunk of local body seats, leaving the Congress a distant second. It is a boost for the beleaguered party and its embattled chief minister Bhagwant Mann, who has courted controversy regularly. It is a sign that the party machinery on the ground is alive and kicking, and Mann’s welfare agenda is popular. In a volatile state where the 2021 farm law protests fundamentally reshaped politics, the local body polls are a virtual semi-final for the assembly elections just months away. The AAP, which stormed to power in a landslide in 2022, starts from pole position. But it should not celebrate just yet. After all, in 2021, the Congress swept the local body elections, only to be booted out of power months later in the assembly polls.
Uttar Pradesh might be the most valuable prize in the 2022 poll cycle but Punjab is also of immense importance — especially to the Opposition. It is not only the largest state ruled by the Opposition in northern India, it is also the only province where the AAP is in power. More than the 2025 Delhi elections, it is Punjab which will be a do-or-die moment for the AAP. For the Shiromani Akali Dal, embroiled in religious controversy and still damaged from its initial support of the farm laws, the elections are also an existential battle. The party might be tempted to tie up with the Bharatiya Janata Party after its dismal showing in both the local body polls and the parliamentary elections. And for the Congress, which committed political hara-kiri before the 2022 polls, it is an opportunity to expand its foothold in north India, a region the BJP currently dominates.
