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Return of anti-incumbency
Strong political figures Mamata Banerjee, MK Stalin and Pinarayi Vijayan faced growing public anger over corruption and crime, which significantly impacted the election results in their respective states.
For instance, Mamata Banerjee came to power in 2011 after 34 years of Left rule. But over time, her government was linked to issues like “tolabazi,” “syndicate raj,” and “cut money,” with allegations that local strongmen controlled governance in many areas.
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MK Stalin’s case was no different. His tenure saw criticism over rising crime, especially against women and SC communities, corruption cases, arrests of senior leaders and strong court remarks against figures like V. Senthil Balaji, which gave political opponents an opportunity to attack his government. In Kerala, Pinarayi Vijayan faced corruption allegations, including controversies like the Sabarimala temple gold theft case, which weakened public trust.
So, how did Himanta Sarma survive? Sarma, BJP’s face in the Northeast, focussed on development, welfare schemes, and strong political messaging that helped him maintain support. Effective delivery and narrative control worked in his favour, along with factors like delimitation.
Hindu votes consolidated
BJP’s stunning wins in West Bengal and Assam show growing consolidation of Hindu votes, despite large Muslim populations. In Bengal, slogans like “Jai Shri Ram” moved beyond the Hindi belt and became a political counter to Mamata Banerjee’s image of minority appeasement, reports The Times of India. Violence in Murshidabad, Malda, and Sandeshkhali were used to build a narrative of “selective governance,” strengthening the BJP’s messaging.
Mamata Banerjee came up with certain damage control measures, like Hindu priests and support for Durga Puja, but too late. Events outside India, especially reports of attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh, added momentum to BJP’s infiltration and “demographic change” narrative.
In Assam, the BJP built on older anti-infiltration politics and strengthened its voter base and in southern state of Kerala, backlash over the Sabarimala controversy hurt the Left, helping the BJP gain some vote share. In Tamil Nadu, DMK’s anti-Sanatan remarks did not fully work and created cracks in its support base.
Muslim factor
BJP’s strong criticism of “appeasement politics” has helped it unite Hindu voters, creating a counter-consolidation that has changed the political space for so-called secular parties. The Muslim vote consolidation has not been enough to stop the BJP’s rise in states like Uttar Pradesh, Assam, and Bihar.
The regional parties worry that supporting Muslim concerns may upset Hindu voters, while staying quiet can disappoint minority communities. Mamata Banerjee is a clear example of this challenge. Her outreach to Muslim voters was seen by many as excessive, which reduced her appeal among some Hindu voters.
In Assam, Congress’s support is now limited in minority-dominated districts. In Kerala, CPM struggled to win Muslim votes as Congress-led alliances benefited from partners like the Indian Union Muslim League.
Modi ki guarantee
Doubts about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity after the BJP’s weaker 2024 performance now seem over after the assembly elections in Bengal and Assam.
In West Bengal, PM Modi played a key role in boosting the BJP despite major challenges like no strong local leader against Mamata Banerjee and a weaker party network. The BJP strategy is clear while PM Modi builds momentum, Home Minister Amit Shah strengthens the organisation on the ground.
In Assam, especially in places like Dibrugarh, Modi’s outreach to tea garden workers made a big impact, even in areas once loyal to Congress.
Welfare schemes were promoted as “Modi ki guarantee,” which helped build trust among voters.
SIR factor
The SIR factor, meaning the voter roll revision, became a major issue in the West Bengal elections. While the TMC called it a targeted move to remove Muslim voters, the BJP said it cleaned fake, duplicate, and invalid entries. As many as 27 lakh voters were flagged for discrepancies and TMC missed the opportunity to turn this into a strong anti-BJP issue.
Double engine politics
BJP’s “double engine” idea (same party in state + Centre) gained traction as it promises faster development, better coordination, and more investment. Some non-BJP states rejecting central schemes (like Ayushman Bharat) may have hurt their image. Voters compared states. For instance: Bengal’s slow growth vs rising investment in Assam. The model works not just on promises, but on visible differences.
Migration issue
Migration became an emotional and political issue in Bengal. Once an industrial hub, the state, especially the capital city Kolkata, now sees people leaving for jobs, seen as a sign of weak economic growth. It raises questions on Mamata Banerjee’s development model and worked in favour of the BJP, helping the party to capitalise it.
Women safety
Women voters, once a strong support base for Mamata, showed signs of shifting in Bengal. Incidents like RG Kar, Durgapur gang-rape incident, and Sandeshkali jolted Bengal and raised significant concerns, raising questions about women’s safety and hurt public trust. Welfare schemes like Lakshmi Bhandar helped earlier, but safety concerns became bigger.
After the Durgapur incident, Mamata Banerjee faced criticism for saying girls should not stay out after 8 pm, with many feeling the comment shifted responsibility for safety onto women instead of focusing on law and order. Her dismissal of allegations in Sandeshkhali, including claims of harassment against Hindu women, also drew backlash. Critics said her response appeared insensitive and lacked urgency, which may have affected her connect with women voters.
Cash transfers
Cash handouts have become a standard election promise, with parties competing to offer more. Voters now compare benefits and switch support easily. Mamata Banerjee lost some women voters to rivals offering higher payouts.
States like Assam and Tamil Nadu are expanding cash schemes with bigger benefits. By 2025–26, states may spend around ₹1.7 lakh crore on such programs.
However, rising welfare costs are putting pressure on finances in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala.
The Gen-Z factor
In Tamil Nadu, young voters have made a strong impact, shaking the long-standing Dravidian political system. This generation wants change, rejects “chalta hai” attitudes, and is not tied to traditional political loyalties.
With the power of social media and support from women voters, Gen Z played a key role in quickly turning Vijay from a film star into a serious political contender.
At the same time, the influence of leaders like M. Karunanidhi and J. Jayalalithaa has faded, and current leaders have struggled to match their legacy. There is also a clear gap between what young voters want and what traditional politics offers.
(With TOI inputs)
