Russian president Vladimir Putin is not ready to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine despite growing economic pressures and unease among sections of Russian society and the elite, former prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov said on Saturday.Kasyanov, who served as Russia’s prime minister from 2000 to 2004, said Putin understood that invading Ukraine in 2022 had been a mistake but remained unwilling to change course.“He made a mistake that he cannot bring himself to admit,” Kasyanov, 68, told AFP in Paris. “He believed the reports from his security services that Ukraine was weak.”Kasyanov said he was not convinced the war would end next year, arguing that high oil prices linked to the US-Iran conflict and disagreements between the United States and Europe over dealing with Moscow had strengthened Putin’s position.“Putin is, of course, rubbing his hands with glee,” he said. “He clearly believes he can continue the war without making any concessions. And he is convinced that he is winning a war of attrition against Ukraine.”The former prime minister warned that the coming winter could be particularly difficult for Ukraine and urged Western countries to apply “psychological pressure on the Kremlin” by maintaining unity and urgently supplying Kyiv with Patriot missile interceptors.Putin, a former KGB officer who turns 74 on Wednesday, has repeatedly said millions of Russians support the war. His ruling party won a record supermajority in elections last month, a result critics said followed a tightly controlled process.Kasyanov, who left Russia in 2022 and now lives in exile in Riga, said he remained in contact with members of the Russian ruling elite.“Fear reigns there — I am talking about the ruling class,” he was quoted saying.“Everyone wants the war to end. An overwhelming majority does”, he told AFP.He said views differed over how the conflict should conclude, with some seeking victory, others wanting Putin’s defeat and some simply wanting the fighting to stop.Among ordinary Russians, Kasyanov said he saw “no grounds for a revolt” despite casualties and rising food prices.“Russians have lived with high inflation for the past 30 years,” he said. “They have grown accustomed to putting up with it.”However, he warned that another large-scale mobilisation could trigger street protests.Kasyanov, who joined the opposition after being dismissed by Putin, described Russia as “practically totalitarian” and said there was “a sense of fatalism, hostility toward one another, and serious tension in society”.On Putin’s recent warning that Russia could use “all types of weapons” if Kaliningrad were attacked, Kasyanov urged Western countries not to be intimidated.“The West’s and Europeans’ biggest mistake is that they are too afraid of Putin. He is not as strong as he appears,” he said.“Putin fears the nuclear button more than many Europeans do.” Kasyanov said he did not believe Putin was preparing for open war with Europe, arguing that Moscow’s objective was to force European countries to acknowledge Russia.“What Putin wants is respect. He wants to force all of Europe to give it to him,” he said.
