The world in general and geo-political analysts in particular are grappling with a disruptive disorder unleashed by President Trump. The new game playing out in the Middle East really has no rules and closely approximates the Hindi maxim of ‘Jiski lathi, uski bhains’, which literally translates to the one who wields the stick will commandeer the buffalo or what essentially means might is right.In this process, the basic postulates that defined the Westphalian rule-based order, collegiate consensus and overwatch by international bodies like the United Nations, have now been consigned to Trump’s bizarre, vindictive incoherence.In a fortnight, more has happened to make it a theatre of absurdities than decades of reasoned geopolitics, even if there were aberrations galore, like invasion of Iraq. The stark reality is that chaos will have long-term consequences, till a new template is negotiated.Unleashing of ChaosThe first nail in this coffin was driven by Russia’s special military operation in Feb 2022, dragging now for more than three years. The next act was the Hamas raid in Gaza on Oct 7, 2023.Israel, overcoming the initial setback, has utilised it skilfully to dismantle the dreaded arc of terror crafted by Iran. Resultantly, Hamas, Hezbollah, Hashd-al-Shabi and Houthis are in a complete state of disarray. Targeted assassinations have been leveraged to trigger psychological chaos.Israel as the new regional hegemon, enjoying US backing, has certainly overplayed its hard-power game. It is indeed sad that there has been no restraining influence, resulting in wanton destruction in Gaza, bordering on genocide.It also highlights rank hypocrisy in designation of Putin as a war criminal, when Netanyahu is getting a free pass. This is the new normal, expanding from good/bad terror to benign/malevolent genocides and assassinations. Notwithstanding lunch parleys, it was high time and appropriate that Muridke and Bahawalpur were targeted by India.If Israelis are justified in their acts, non-escalatory targeting of terrorist infrastructure in Operation Sindoor is more than kosher. The desire for retribution, after the Baisaran (Pahalgam) massacre, was equally unprecedented. It had reached this tipping point, after decades of frustration in combating a Pakistan-sponsored proxy war.Operation Rising Lion and Midnight HammerAn emboldened Israel unleashed a supposed knock-out punch, with possible twin objectives of destroying nuclear facilities and triggering a regime change. Initially, Israel did score commendable gains in eliminating top-brass of the Iranian defence forces, as also the nuclear scientist hierarchy.However, it certainly underestimated Iranian resilience and missile arsenal. Iranian response exposed chinks in the Iron Dome, as approximately 35-40% Iranian missiles are said to have breached the famed missile shield.This probably forced a rethink, as IDF and Mossad actions at best degraded some nuclear facilities and scientists. Iran is a civilizational power with a formidable knowledge and resource base. The nation seems to have rallied around the regime. In any case, even if a regime change is affected, it may turn out to be just another shade of the same theocratic and autocratic hue, like Khomeini and Khamenei.More importantly, the dominant Shia faith has inherent, considerable capacity to suffer punishment. In this case, sheer power alone may not be enough to subdue it. In the long term, the resolution lies in negotiations, especially when US intelligence agencies discounted Iran’s capability to acquire nuclear weapons in the short term.In terms of bearing punishment, Israel has obvious limitations compared to Iran in demography and geographic dispersion. It also forced a review in its aims as the regime change idea was disowned by both Israel and USA.The Trump regime is also on the verge of disowning Tulsi Gabbard, its celebrated director of national intelligence. It is to the credit of Israel that it managed to do the unthinkable and got the US to launch Operation Midnight Hammer, after a fortnight of increasingly stalemated operations. The bombing raid on the night of June 21 and 22 targeted Fordow, Natanz and Ishafan nuclear sites.USA deployed the ultimate vectors — B-52 stealth bombers and GBU-57A/B MOP (massive ordnance penetrator) bunker buster munitions, along with Tomahawk missiles. Decoy deployments, aerial refuelling were used to operationalise the secret plan, which was honed for 15 years.Damage AssessmentTrump, in his characteristic hyperbolic claim, has asserted that the Iranian nuclear eco-system has been obliterated. He has declared a ceasefire and diabolically described it as a “bombing for peace” mission. More pragmatic official briefings have been conservative. On being repeatedly queried on damage, he has stated that an assessment is underway.In retaliation, Iran targeted the US base of Al-Udeid in Qatar on June 23, but only after 40 fighter jets and a thousand troops had been relocated.Media is abuzz with reports that Iran seemed to have relocated 400kg of enriched uranium (60% against the planned 90% for weapon grade) before the bomb run. There are conspiracy theories of this being largely a choreographed operation. In a world defined by misinformation and cognitive warfare, it is difficult to access reliable information.In most probability, the Iranian nuclear weapon mission has been degraded and delayed by one-two years. Yet, its resolve has hardened and its quest for an atomic bomb may just now go deeper and become more secretive. Iran seems to be isolated with only nominal support. In fact, Saudi Arabia and Gulf nations would be relieved with the defanging of Iran in nuclear and terror dimensions.Way ForwardThe ongoing operations have shifted the focus to the non-kinetic mode of warfighting with long-range vectors —missiles, drones and missile shields. Armament manufacturers are the only winners in these losing battles. The desire to acquire nuclear weapons as an ultimate shield will only proliferate. In this theatre of chaos, is it time to write an obituary to the United Nations and nuclear regulatory organisations.The real casualty of this new world order may be the very institutions once meant to prevent it.(The writer is a former GoC-in-C, Western Command, Indian Army)
