Margao: With the Goa Forward Party (GFP) veering towards the Congress-led alliance, political observers say only a grand alliance on the lines of Bihar’s ‘mahagathbandhan’ can ensure the BJP’s defeat in the 2027 assembly polls. A triangular contest in most constituencies, they warn, could wipe out the Congress altogether.If the AAP also joins the opposition bloc, it could lift morale in the opposition camp and “add flavour” to the alliance, the observers added.Academician and political commentator Manoj Kamat said the AAP’s inclusion would matter a great deal to the alliance’s success, even though the party’s aura has dimmed since the last election. “The AAP’s aura is not what it was at the time of the last election. But whether it joins the alliance or not matters a lot for the alliance’s success,” he said.Kamat said the real damage would come from the AAP ticket becoming a refuge for disgruntled Congress aspirants. “Any aspiring candidate who is denied a Congress ticket is likely to contest on an AAP ticket. His goal may not be to win the election, but his plan is to create compelling grounds for him to claim the Congress ticket in the next election,” he said.Even a modest vote share, Kamat said, is enough to hurt the Congress. “Even if the AAP secures 1,000-1,500 votes in a constituency, that is enough to devastate the Congress there,” he said. “If there is no alliance with the AAP, you are giving the third person the option of an AAP ticket. If he gets 1,000, 1,500 or 2,000 votes, that is enough to damage the Congress’s prospects.”In that sense, he said, even Cuncolim, represented by the leader of the Opposition, would be vulnerable for the Congress in a triangular contest.He said that it would work to AAP’s advantage even if it gets a few seats in the alliance. “With the entire Opposition behind the candidate, the AAP can win such seats and increase its tally,” he said. “But if the AAP and the Opposition alliance go their separate ways, the BJP could sweep the polls, especially if the AAP manages 1,000-2,000 votes in every constituency.”Advocate and political observer Cleofato Coutinho agreed that unity would change the nature of the contest. If AAP, Congress, RGP and Goa Forward come together, he said, the election would turn “totally bipolar” in all constituencies, to the BJP’s disadvantage. “Then, besides arithmetic, a little bit of chemistry works in. It is like the mahagathbandhan concept. It adds flavour to the alliance,” he said.Coutinho said that while AAP’s presence would give the alliance a boost, he felt AAP joining hands with Congress was remote. “If the AAP is there with them, a new euphoria develops, and it becomes completely Opposition versus ruling, one-on-one,” he said.Kamat said it would be foolhardy for the Congress to underestimate the AAP. “Both the AAP and the Congress are in the same boat, as it is the BJP that has decimated both. Only a combined force can take on the BJP and stem its march,” he said.
