For Trump, the cost of Iran war is rising

“We are roaming free over Tehran, can do whatever,” U.S. President Donald Trump said on March 25. “We literally have planes flying over Tehran… they can’t do a thing about it,” he told reporters on the South Lawn of the White House, listing what he called the achievements of the war. Nine days later, on the 35th day of the war, Iran shot down two American fighter jets and hit at least one Black Hawk helicopter, dramatically increasing the cost of war for the American President.

On March 5, the Israel Defence Force said Israel had destroyed 80% of Iran’s air defence systems and more than 60% of its ballistic missile launchers, “a very significant achievement that reduces the damage to the home front”. Pete Hegseth, the U.S. Secretary of War, stated on March 10 that, “[W]e are winning decisively with brutal efficiency, total air dominance”. Over the past few weeks, Mr. Trump had repeatedly claimed that the U.S. was winning the war. He said Iran was being “decimated”; its navy, air force, radars and anti-aircraft systems were all “destroyed”. On April 1, in his primetime national address, Mr. Trump said the U.S. was completing all of its objectives of the war.

Air bases hit

Despite Mr. Trump’s claims of “destroying” Iran’s military capabilities, Tehran has continued to hit American bases in the Persian Gulf and hundreds of targets in Israel. According to an investigation of satellite images by the New York Times, “many of the 13 American military bases in the region are all but uninhabitable”. [Both in Israel and the Gulf monarchies, there is a strict censorship on the impact of the Iranian attack.]

In his April 1 address, Mr. Trump compared the war on Iran with his January 3 attack on Venezuela when U.S. troops flew into the South American country, abducted its President Nicolas Maduro and got out. The U.S. suffered no major human or material losses in the raid. But the war on Iran is turning out to be a different story. At least 13 U.S. servicemen have been officially confirmed killed since the war began, and hundreds of others were wounded.

The U.S. lost three F-15Es due to what the Pentagon called a “friendly fire” incident over Kuwait’s skies on March 1. At least one F-35, the most advanced American fighter jet, was damaged and forced to make an emergency landing after Iranian air defence fire on March 19. On March 12, one KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq due to “an accident”. The Pentagon said the crash was not caused by enemy fire. A second KC-135 involved in the incident sustained severe damage.

At least six KC-135s were damaged in two Iranian missile and drone attacks at the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. On March 27, one Boeing E-3 Sentry AWACS airborne surveillance aircraft was destroyed in an Iranian attack. The U.S. has also lost at least 12 MQ-9 Reaper drones since the war began, according to some reports. Besides aircraft, America’s AN/TPY-2 THAAD radar units (used for long-range missile detection) have been hit or destroyed at several bases in the Gulf and Jordan. Other radar systems got hit include AN/FPS-132 early warning radar at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel Systems.

Enemy fire

Mr. Trump has so far played down the Iranian attacks. But he may not be able to to do the same about the losses on April 3 as two jets went down—one in Iran and the other in the Persian Gulf. This was the first time since the war began enemy fire brought down an American fighter, according to U.S. officials.

The F-15E Strike Eagle was carrying a crew of two military officials when it came under Iranian fire. They ejected from the aircraft. According to U.S. media, one of them was rescued, while the status of the other crew member remained unknown. Separately, an A-10 Warthog, another Air Force combat plane, with the lone pilot, crashed in the Gulf. The pilot was reportedly rescued. It’s not yet clear if the remaining crew member is in Iran’s custody. The Black Hawk helicopter, which was involved in search and rescue operations, landed safely in Iraq after getting hit by Iranian fire, according to U.S. officials.

The U.S. and Israel have been pounding Iran for five weeks. Last week, Mr. Trump shared a post about strikes on Iran’s tallest bridge. Independent information from inside Iran is scarce, but the attacks have caused enormous damages in Iran. Yet, despite thousands of airstrikes, Tehran’s continued attacks show it still retains offensive capability and defensive firepower. As material losses mount, the political cost of the war — already unpopular at home — is rising for Mr. Trump, who has yet to outline an exit strategy. He has repeatedly said the war would end “soon” and urged Iran to make a deal or face “Stone Age” bombing. But Tehran appears in no hurry to negotiate.