As monsoon falters and glaciers recede, the government cannot afford climate complacency
United Nations Secretary General António Guterres has raised the red flag yet again, cautioning that a strengthening El Niño, layered atop human-induced global warming, is about to push the planet deeper into the era of extremes. This is not an abstract scientific projection; it is a political and moral indictment of a world that prefers short-term profit over planetary survival. This latest warning is not a distant headline; it is a direct alert to Jammu and Kashmir. As a strengthening El Nino converges with relentless global warming, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has cautioned that the coming months will likely bring higher temperatures and, crucially for South Asia, below‑normal monsoon rainfall. For a Himalayan region already reeling from erratic weather, shrinking glaciers, and fragile ecosystems, this is a red signal. El Nino is no mere meteorological curiosity. For J&K, weaker monsoon rains can mean parched fields in the plains, stressed orchards in the hills, and reduced recharge of rivers and streams fed by both rainfall and snow. Apple, saffron, paddy, and maize; our core livelihoods are acutely sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. A delayed or deficient monsoon, followed by sudden cloudbursts or unseasonal snowfall, can devastate entire seasons of work and push already vulnerable families deeper into debt and uncertainty. The risks do not stop at agriculture. As temperatures rise and precipitation patterns shift, our glaciers, long treated as eternal, are retreating at an alarming pace. El Nino‑linked warmth can accelerate this loss, disrupting river flows, heightening flood risks in the short term and threatening water security in the long run. Urban centres like Srinagar and Jammu, already struggling with unplanned growth, inadequate drainage and polluted water bodies, are dangerously exposed to both flooding and prolonged dry spells. António Guterres has rightly called for ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable and building early warning systems for all. For J&K, this global agenda must translate into urgent, concrete regional action. That means a time‑bound plan to scale up solar and small hydropower responsibly, instead of clinging to diesel, coal-based power imports and environmentally reckless construction. It means climate‑proofing our agriculture through drought‑resistant varieties, efficient irrigation, crop insurance that actually pays, and robust extension services that reach the last orchard and field. Equally critical is governance. Early warning systems for floods, landslides and heatwaves must be modern, reliable and accessible in local languages, and their alerts must trigger real, rehearsed response, not bureaucratic confusion. Land-use regulations must stop being mere paperwork as wetlands, floodplains and forests are steadily encroached in the name of ‘development’. The cost of this negligence is paid, year after year, by the poorest. El Nino is not just a global climate signal; it is a mirror held up to our own priorities. Jammu and Kashmir has a narrow window to prepare for a harsher climate future. To waste it in complacency and ad hoc measures is not just short-sighted, it is a betrayal of those who will inherit these mountains and valleys after us.
