NEW DELHI: Predicting a climatic condition that may further aggravate adverse weather in South Asia, including India, World Meteorological Organisation Friday said an El Nino event is expected to develop as early as May-July, impacting “global temperature and rainfall patterns”. Earlier, this condition was expected to develop in the second half of the monsoon season (Aug-Sept).El Nino events, which typically occur every 2-7 years and last around 9-12 months, affect temperature and rain patterns in different regions and typically have a warming effect on the global climate. Amid growing risk of El Nino, IMD has already predicted “below normal” monsoon rainfall in India.The latest monthly global seasonal climate update from WMO signals a clear shift in the equatorial Pacific where sea-surface temperatures are rising rapidly, pointing to a likely return of El Nino conditions next month.El Nino is characterised by warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific.“For the May-June-July season, land surface temperatures are expected to be above-normal nearly everywhere,” said WMO, noting that the seasonal forecasts are vital to guide preparedness actions, especially in climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, water resource management, energy and health.“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, chief of climate prediction at WMO.
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