REXBURG, IDAHO, a college town of 40,000 near Yellowstone National Park, is an unlikely place for a computer-science boom. Home to Brigham Young University-Idaho, a sister institution to the flagship BYU campus in Utah, the town has few technology jobs, scarcely any venture-backed startups and little patent activity. Yet in 2024 BYU-Idaho awarded students more than 2,000 computer and information-science degrees, placing it 16th in the country ahead of powerhouses such as Carnegie Mellon, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford. Its ascent has been swift. In 2022 the university, which accepts 96% of applicants and teaches more than half its students online, awarded just 639 such degrees.
REXBURG, IDAHO, is a college town of 40,000 near Yellowstone National Park (rexburg.org)
The story of BYU-Idaho is less unusual than it seems. Computer and information sciences—now America’s fourth-most-popular field of study—has grown six-and-a-half times as fast as the average discipline over the past decade. Our analysis of data from the Department of Education shows that predominantly online institutions with permissive admissions policies have been most responsible for the growth. Since 2012-13, when the department began collecting distance-learning data, computing degrees at universities where more than half of students study online grew by around 8% a year; at institutions in the bottom fifth by selectivity they increased by 11% a year; and at universities with both characteristics they grew by more than 14% a year.
Like BYU-Idaho, many of these institutions have experienced a surge in tech graduates in the past few years. Between 2022 and 2024 the number of computer and information-science graduates from the University of North Texas, a large public university, tripled. At Wichita State University, a mid-sized public university in Kansas, the number quadrupled. At MyComputerCareer at Indianapolis, a provider of short-term IT credentials, it increased nearly six-fold. Although computing-related qualifications have grown in popularity across the board, short-term programmes—including master’s degrees that can be completed in as little as six months—have expanded fastest.
What explains the surge? Labour-market forces may be part of the answer. Demand for software engineers and other technology workers has been strong, helping to push up wages. In 2024 newly minted computer and information-science graduates earned a median starting salary of $89,000; for those with master’s degrees, the figure exceeded $106,000.
Changes in university business models may also be fuelling the boom. For decades institutions charged students per course credit and capped their course loads, based on assumptions about how much work they could take on. Many universities now offer so-called competency-based degrees that charge a flat fee per term, allowing students to race through qualifications in months or even weeks.
Artificial intelligence may be accelerating these trends. Educators across every academic field are struggling to contain AI-assisted cheating. And computer-science students appear to be the heaviest users of such tools. A recent paper by Igor Chirikov of the University of California, Berkeley, and colleagues analyses survey data on generative-AI use among more than 95,000 undergraduates at 20 institutions. The researchers found that 62% of computer-science students use AI regularly, compared with 37% of students overall; one in ten AI-using computer-science students admitted to cheating with the technology. Online instruction makes such behaviour harder to police. Combined with all-you-can-eat course loads, AI may make it easier for students to race through programmes. It may not be a coincidence that computing degrees surged after ChatGPT’s release in 2022.
This leaves aspiring software engineers in a bind. There is growing evidence that AI may be reducing demand for entry-level software engineers even as it boosts the supply of graduates. If these trends continue, many more students may find themselves relying on AI to qualify for a profession increasingly threatened by it.
