Chennai: Northern Tamil Nadu has remained DMK‘s most reliable political base, accounting for nearly one-third of its sitting MLAs.Thirty four its incumbents are from this belt, comprising nine districts from Cuddalore to Tiruvannamalai. The AIADMK-led alliance, in comparison, managed just 14. Retaining this dominance is the key focus of DMK in the upcoming election, even as AIADMK attempts a comeback by fielding several former ministers to regain lost ground. DMK’s strength in the north is underpinned by both a strong local leadership and robust grasroot support. Senior leaders like Duraimurugan, E V Velu and M R K Panneerselvam hail from this region. Velu, unbeaten since 2001, has emerged as a regional strongman. AIADMK too has veterans like C Ve Shanmugam and K C Veeramani who have kept the party apparatus intact to a large extent, despite repeated defeats. But in a region, where caste dynamics remain central to electoral outcomes, DMK has an edge. Vanniyars and dalits together account for nearly 55% of the electorate in the northern districts. DMK’s partnership with the VCK, led by Thol Thirumavalavan, is expected to bring a large share of the dalit votes to the DMK. On the other hand, AIADMK has tied up with PMK hoping to garner the vanniyar votes. But the challenge for the AIADMK, is the split in PMK. The rift between PMK founder S Ramadoss and his son and PMK president Anbumani Ramadoss would fragment the vanniyar votes. Though Anbumani is touted to get much of the traditional PMK votes, even a minor split may dent the prospects of AIADMK – PMK combine in a tightly contested election. BJP remains a marginal player in the region, with limited influence of its own. Its presence, however, could indirectly benefit the DMK by consolidating minority votes in the ruling party’s favour. Around 15 constituencies, including Ambur, Vaniyambadi, Ranipet and Kattumannarkoil, have significant Muslim voters. Entry of actor Vijay’s TVK has made it a triangular contest in the vanniyar heartland. A section of youth are enthused by the political entry of Vijay, but the fledgling party’s lack of organisational depth has raised doubts about its impact. Similarly, Seeman’s NTK may hold influence voters to some extent without emerging as a decisive force. Besides the caste arthmetic, DMK is also banking on the welfare schemes like the Rs 1000 monthly assistance to women. Meanwhile, the AIADMK and its leader Edappadi K Palaniswami continue to target the DMK over dynastic politics and bank on anti-incumbency to regain ground. “AIADMK’s strategy is not taking off here. DMK has an edge as many factors, including alliance arthimatics, favouring them,” said L C Mani of Tamilnadu Vivasayigal Sangam and an electorate in Katpadi constituency.
