Picture the scene, some time in the 2030s. Three dozen leaders of the European Union’s member states crowd around a gilded desk in some history-laden hall—perhaps in Versailles, Sarajevo or Rome. The Spanish prime minister signs a thick vellum document, before passing the Mont Blanc pen to the German chancellor, then the Ukrainian president. The mood is jovial as, one by one, signatures are affixed on “The Treaty of Accession of the United Kingdom to the European Union (version 2.0)”. As the pen makes its way to the French president, she seems to waver for a second, perhaps recalling past tabloid headlines about bendy bananas and budget rebates. Finally it is the turn of the British prime minister of the day. In one stroke Brexit is reversed; the only member to have left the EU’s embrace is now safely back inside. Amid the sound of champagne corks popping, few can make out the words of an elderly gentleman in the public gallery, one Nigel Farage, fulminating vaguely about the will of the people. Welcome back, Britain! The prodigal nation returns!
The current state of Britain-EU relations offers nary a hint of what response might emanate from Brussels. (Unsplash)
What would once have seemed like a Remainer fever dream no longer feels so absurd. For the first time since the Brexit referendum of June 2016, the idea of asking to return to the fold is on Britain’s political horizon. Granted, for now the idea of Bre-entry is confined to Labour politicians, floating the notion to charm party members ahead of a possible challenge to Sir Keir Starmer; several hope to become prime minister in his stead. Granted, too, that the euro-bashers of Mr Farage’s Reform UK party are far ahead in the polls. But rejoining the EU seems to resonate with many British voters, a majority of whom think leaving was a mistake. The notion is unlikely to go away soon. As more and more Westminster politicians declare they favour applying for re-entry, the EU may one day need to say what it thinks of the idea of Britain boomeranging back into the union it left in a huff.
The current state of Britain-EU relations offers nary a hint of what response might emanate from Brussels. Since the divorce was officialised in 2020, the two sides have haggled over relatively small fry, such as aligning rules on food safety and whatnot. That is the purview of mid-level Eurocrats. In contrast, a bid for Bre-entry would be taken up by the EU’s national leaders in Paris, Berlin and beyond. Plenty would see the case for Britain to rejoin. Any union should welcome a G7 country with a seat on the UN Security Council, its own nuclear weapons and the continent’s biggest capital-markets hub. The same factors that are prompting some in Britain to discuss a return—a chaotic global order, in which America and China vie for supremacy and leave middle powers scrambling for security—should also sway the EU towards Bre-entry. Across the union, voters say they would welcome Britain back.
Pas si vite, some diplomats might retort. Britain was always a half-hearted member of the EU. It insisted on opt-outs from some of the bloc’s flagship measures, notably the euro and the Schengen passport-free travel area, not to mention demanding rebates on its contributions to the budget. Why bring the awkward squad back into a union they think has worked just fine without it? Since Britain’s departure, the EU has pushed forward with federalising schemes that British prime ministers would no doubt have proudly kiboshed at Brussels summits. EU spending is now funded in part with money jointly borrowed by its 27 member states, surely a taboo in London. The union has adopted French ideas on industrial policy and “strategic autonomy”, in part thanks to not having to worry about British vetoes.
In theory, Britain’s reaccession bid would be treated no differently from those of other countries, from Ukraine to Serbia, which have formally asked to join the EU. In practice it would be both easier and harder. As a past member whose regulation has not much diverged from the acquis communautaire, the hundreds of tomes of EU rules that all prospective joiners must accept, Britain would jump through hoops faster than most. The tough bit—apart from dozens of national governments each wielding a veto over the final decision—is that some might insist Britain could join the EU only if it also agreed to adopt the euro and Schengen. This could serve as a test of how seriously the aspiring newcomer really wants to be part of the club this time. In practice it would be easy enough for Britain to commit to join either one “when the right conditions were met”, only for said conditions never to be met. The budget rebate Britain once enjoyed would no doubt have to go, which might have happened anyway had it remained in the EU.
Breturn to sender
The main reason for reluctance about Bre-entry on the EU side is a niggling doubt as to whether Britain can ever be counted on to stay in. To have a member leave the union once may be regarded as a misfortune; for it to happen again would look like carelessness. In practice, says Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank in London, the EU would want to see broad agreement across party lines in Britain before discussing re-entry terms, so that tomorrow’s ministers did not unpick a deal reached by today’s. That might entail the Conservatives backing a return (far-fetched for now), or Mr Farage’s political fortunes waning.
Even then patience would be in order. Britain’s initial bid to join the EU in 1961 succeeded only after 12 years (and despite two French vetoes). A similar timeline would imply more than a generation had passed between the 2016 vote and Bre-entry, a suitable timeframe for a nation to change its mind. The journey would be long, tortuous—and worth it. Brits would get to unpick an error that has left them poorer and more isolated. For the EU the prize may be even greater: to establish their union as the continent’s manifest destiny, complete with chastened British officials once again haggling late into the night over fishing quotas.
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