Chandigarh: The city is likely to witness below-normal rainfall in August. The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) latest monthly outlook indicates that the monsoon may remain weaker than usual across much of the country.Regional Variance Across Northwest IndiaDespite the national trend, Chandigarh—which falls in Northwest India—is among the pockets where normal to above-normal rainfall remains possible, even as national forecasts point toward an overall seasonal deficit.In its outlook for Aug and the second half of the southwest monsoon season (Aug–Sept), the IMD projects below-normal rainfall nationwide. However, select pockets in Northwest India, Central India, Eastern Peninsular India, and isolated parts of East and Northeast India are expected to receive normal to above-normal precipitation. Being part of the Northwest meteorological region, Chandigarh falls into this relatively favorable pocket.Impact on Water Resources & AgricultureDespite this regional buffer, the IMD cautioned that rainfall distribution throughout the month could remain uneven, with brief active spells interspersed with prolonged dry periods.Aug is traditionally Chandigarh’s wettest month. Any significant deviation from average rainfall could adversely affect local groundwater recharge, regional agriculture, and urban water management systems.Temperature Outlook: Humid Nights AheadThe weather department forecasts that monthly average maximum temperature in August will remain above normal across most of the country. However, parts of Northwest India—including the Chandigarh region—may experience normal to below-normal daytime temperatures during active rain spells.Conversely, minimum temperatures are projected to stay normal to above normal, signaling warm, humid nights through most of the month.Climate Drivers: El Niño & IODModerate El Niño Active: Moderate El Niño conditions persist over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with above-normal sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern PacificStrengthening Trend: El Niño is expected to intensify during the remainder of the southwest monsoon season, which typically suppresses rainfall across India.Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Current conditions in the Indian Ocean remain neutral and are expected to hold for most of the seasonPotential Late Relief: Global climate models suggest a positive IOD could develop by Sept, which may partially offset El Niño’s adverse effects on the late monsoonCurrent Seasonal StatusFor now, the local weather department has issued a five-day rain forecast. So far this monsoon season, Chandigarh has recorded 379mm of rainfall, which is 12% below normal.Today’s maximum temperature stood at 35.2 degrees Celsius (two degrees above normal), while the minimum temperature was recorded at 26.7 degrees Celsius which is normal.
