Thousands of Malayalees return home from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Gulf states during election seasons to exercise their franchise.
Expatriate groups even arrange chartered flights for their members to travel. This year this crowd would have been bigger, with Easter and the temple festival season also coinciding with the poll period.
Expatriate groups estimate that the number of voters travelling from the Gulf could fall by as much as half this election cycle.
“We usually arrange close to eight chartered flights from the United Arab Emirates. This year, we are not in a position to do so,” said Puthur Rahman, president of the UAE Kerala Muslim Cultural Centre (KMCC).
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“Many of those working in supermarkets and other businesses are worried about whether they will be able to return if they travel for voting,” he added.The drop will be especially visible in North Kerala, particularly in constituencies of Malappuram, Kozhikode and Kasaragod districts, as well as pockets of Palakkad and Thrissur.
The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the second largest constituent of the Congress-led United Democratic Front, has traditionally been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this voter base.
IUML general secretary PMA Salam acknowledged the potential dip. “Many may not be able to come back for voting. Our KMCC members are in constant touch with authorities in the Gulf, but unless the situation improves, turnout will be lower,” he said.
Around 2.2 m Keralite expatriates are estimated to be living in the Middle East, according to data from the latest Kerala Migration Survey. But the overall electoral impact of this segment remains limited, say political observers.
“There are only a few constituencies in northern Kerala where Gulf voters form a notable base, and these are typically seats with higher victory margins,” said CPI Rajya Sabha MP Sandosh Kumar P. “If the situation improves in the coming weeks, turnout could stabilise.”
