Hyderabad: Telangana recorded a 17% rainfall deficit as of Aug 21, but its monsoon performance was better than that of several major foodgrain-producing states, according to SBI Research.Neighbouring Andhra Pradesh reported a much sharper 39% deficit, while Bihar recorded a 41% shortfall. Punjab had a 32% deficit, Karnataka 22% and Rajasthan 20%.Telangana’s 17% deficit, however, remained within the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) normal rainfall category, which covers departures of up to 19% below normal. With the state close to slipping into the deficient category, rainfall during the remaining weeks of the monsoon will be crucial for water availability and the upcoming rabi season.At the national level, rainfall was 13% below normal, with 351 of 741 districts recording deficient or largely deficient rainfall. Other states reporting higher deficits included Kerala at 24%, Assam at 23% and Karnataka at 22%.Meanwhile, Maharashtra recorded a 7% deficit, Madhya Pradesh 10% and Gujarat 3%. West Bengal reported a 5% surplus, while Odisha received 2% excess rainfall.SBI Research also flagged a weakening monsoon outlook, citing Skymet’s revised 2026 forecast, which lowered expected seasonal rainfall to 85% of the Long Period Average (LPA), from an earlier estimate of 94%. The forecast also put the probability of drought at 70%.The Australian Bureau of Meteorology assessed El Nino conditions as firmly established, while the Indian Ocean Dipole remained neutral as of August 16. SBI Research said El Nino may have a limited impact on kharif production as sowing progress has been satisfactory, but could pose a risk to rabi crops.
