The United States could be on the brink of a major military operation against Iran, with officials warning that conflict could break out in the coming days or weeks if diplomatic efforts fail. Sources told Axios that a potential campaign would be “massive, weeks‑long” and far larger than last month’s pinpoint operation in Venezuela, likely conducted jointly with Israel and targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure.Former IDF military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin told Times of Israel that such a confrontation could be imminent. “Last week I allowed myself to fly to the Munich Security Conference. I would think twice about flying [abroad from Israel] this weekend,” he said. Yadlin, now heading a national security consultancy, added: “We are much closer than we were before, but I remind you — a superpower does not go to war in a matter of days. There is a diplomatic path that must be exhausted. Many oppose the attack. The Pentagon is not clear what they want it to achieve. The president is very determined. The statement that all options are on the table is based on a credible military threat, which comes alongside the preparations off the coast of Iran and in the skies.”US President Donald Trump has combined nuclear diplomacy with a major military buildup. On Tuesday, US advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva for three hours. Both sides said the talks “made progress,” but US officials remain sceptical about bridging key differences.However, US vice president JD Vance said, “The talks went well in some ways, but in other ways it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through.” He added that while the president wants a deal, diplomacy could have “reached its natural end.”According to Axios, the US military presence in the Middle East is substantial. Two aircraft carriers, a dozen warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and multiple air defence systems have been deployed, with more hardware en route. Open-source tracking shows over 150 cargo flights carrying weapons and ammunition, plus 50 fighter jets including F‑35s, F‑22s, and F‑16s, headed to the region.An unnamed Trump adviser told Axios: “Some people around him warn him against going to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks.”Two Israeli officials also told the news outlet that Israel is preparing for war “within days” and is pushing an operation targeting regime change. The report recalled that Iranian missiles in June 2025 killed 32 people and wounded over 3,000 in Holon. Likud MK Boaz Bismuth said: “There is no citizen of Israel who doesn’t ask himself several times a day ‘when will the Iran conflict happen?’ The public is prepared and the authorities are prepared.”Meanwhile, Iran and Russia announced joint naval exercises in the Sea of Oman and northern Indian Ocean, while the Revolutionary Guards conducted drills near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, partially closing it for a few hours.
