Iran enters critical talks on its nuclear programme with the US on Thursday, insisting a deal is in reach as long as Washington sticks by its willingness to concede Iran’s symbolic right to enrich uranium, allow Tehran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in country, and not to impose controls on Iran’s ballistic missile programme.
The three preconditions for success are seen as critical by Iranian diplomats, but it remains unclear whether Trump accepts these parameters.
The US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who is heading to Geneva for the talks along with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, had already accepted these principles in the two previous rounds of indirect talks, Iranian officials claim. But it remains possible that Trump could overturn these terms, a step that will inevitably lead to a conflict between the two nations that could rapidly consume the whole of the Middle East.
It is understood that Witkoff has asked only that Iran agree to enrichment at below 5% purity, roughly the level it accepted in the 2015 nuclear deal and well below weapons grade.
A source in contact with Iran’s negotiation team said members were surprised at the lax terms of the proposal submitted last week by Kushner and Witkoff as a first step. The key request, this source said, was that Iran agree to limit enrichment to 5% and convert the programme to civilian use.
But in turn, the source said there were no offers of immediate sanctions relief or diplomatic ties; Iran would be left in an economic handcuffs. Still, the next step, the source said, would be negotiations to gradually relieve sanctions and opening ongoing dialogue.
Before leaving for Geneva, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said the aim was to achieve “a fair and just agreement in the shortest possible time”.
“Our fundamental positions and beliefs are completely clear. Iran will never, under any circumstances, seek to develop nuclear weapons; at the same time we Iranians will never forgo our right to benefit from peaceful nuclear technology,” he added.
“Achieving an agreement is within reach but only if diplomacy is prioritised.”
In his State of Union speech, delivered early in the morning Tehran time, Trump veered sharply away from the negotiating path adopted by Witkoff when he warned about Iran’s ballistic missiles reaching Europe, accused Iran of being the number one sponsor of terrorism and again claimed Iran had not promised to forgo nuclear weapons. He also claimed 32,000 demonstrators had been killed by the Iranian authorities in recent protests.
The US president added that Iran had failed to heed a warning to make “no future attempts” to rebuild its nuclear weapons programmes after last June’s American strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities. “We wiped it out and they want to start all over again,” Trump said. He added Iran was “at this moment, again, pursuing their sinister ambitions”.
Only two hours before the speech, Araghchi had written on social media Iran would under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon.
After a briefing with the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, Jim Himes, a senior Democrat on the US House intelligence committee, said: “We have not heard a single compelling reason why now is a time to start another war in the Middle East.”
For Iran, the presence of Raphael Grossi, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, at the Geneva talks along with mediators from Oman is regarded as significant, since Grossi has the legal authority to state if he thinks any accessoffered by Iran to verify its commitments on enrichment matches the inspectorate’s needs.
Araghchi’s team are also willing to find ways for Trump can argue the deal he has secured is better than the one negotiated by Barack Obama in 2015. Tehran recognises that this is a political prerequisite for Trump in terms of US domestic politics.
Before heading to Geneva, Grossi said the US had made it clear it was not going to argue for weeks or months. “A very dangerous situation is developing against the backdrop of these negotiations,” he said in reference to the vast and now complete US military buildup in the region.
Araghchi said in an interview with CBS this week that “enrichment is our right … this technology is dear to us”. The US has not been clear if its demand for zero enrichment within Iran would apply to enrichment for medical purposes.
Speaking to the Iranian newspaper Entekhab, Hamzeh Safavi, a professor of political science at Tehran University, said: “It is unlikely Iran would accept zero enrichment but it is likely to accept symbolic enrichment. What is important for Iran is the right to enrich and that the issue of enrichment does not become a tool for hostage-taking.”
An Iranian agreement on a suspension of enrichment is not unprecedented. In 2003 the then secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Hassan Rouhani, agreed with France, Germany and the UK to suspend all uranium enrichment and processing activities and to allow snap inspections by the UN nuclear watchdog.
The Iranian negotiating team who are being asked to present specific proposals at the Geneva talks will seek irreversible sanctions relief such as the release of frozen Iranian assets held abroad.
Meanwhile, in Iran, protests have continued at universities for the fifth day, nearly two months after demonstrations against the regime began..
