Hyderabad: Rice prices in Telangana have surged sharply in recent months, making it one of the costliest states for consumers despite remaining a rice-surplus region. Retail prices have recorded the second-highest increase in the country over the past three months, and agricultural experts warn that rising global prices and procurement policies could push them even higher.According to retail price data compiled by Union ministry of consumer affairs, rice prices in Telangana rose 13.32%, from ₹54.4 per kg in July to ₹61.6 in Sept. The increase was the second highest among states and came despite expectations that Telangana would continue to produce surplus rice even in an El Niño year.Prices climbed from ₹54.4 per kg in July to ₹56.7 in Aug and further to ₹61.6 in Sept, taking the three-month average to ₹57.6 per kg. In absolute terms, the increase of ₹7.2 per kg was second only to Karnataka, where prices rose by ₹7.3.Among states, Tripura recorded the highest percentage increase at 17.33%, followed by Telangana (13.32%), Karnataka (12.94%), Goa (11.62%), and Andhra Pradesh (10.51%).The pace of increase accelerated significantly in September. While prices rose by ₹2.3 between July and Aug, they jumped by ₹4.9 between Aug and Sept.At ₹61.6 per kg, Telangana recorded the third-highest retail price in Sept, behind Karnataka (₹63.7) and Goa (₹62.6). Tamil Nadu stood at ₹61.1 per kg. Telangana’s Sept price was ₹15.5 higher than the national average of ₹46.1, a difference of nearly 34%.Among neighbouring states, rice prices in Sept were ₹56.7 per kg in Andhra Pradesh, ₹50.2 in Maharashtra and ₹39.9 in Chhattisgarh. Karnataka was the only southern state with a higher retail price than Telangana.Prof Aldas Janaiah, agricultural economist and vice-chancellor of Professor Jayashankar Telangana Agricultural University, said the state’s paddy procurement policy requires a rethink. He argued that large-scale procurement of surplus paddy at the minimum support price and its storage with millers and govt agencies had reduced the availability of rice in open markets, contributing to higher consumer prices.Prof Janaiah suggested limiting procurement to public distribution system requirements and Telangana’s obligation to the central pool, which he said could also reduce pressure on the state exchequer.Samarendu Mohanty, founding director of Centre for Sustainable Agriculture and Development Studies at PJTAU, said strengthening global rice prices could support Indian exports but may also put further pressure on domestic prices.According to the policy paper ‘Telangana Rice Outlook in an El Niño Year’, authored by Prof Janaiah and Mohanty, Thai broken rice prices have risen nearly 25% from recent lows, raising the possibility of stronger export demand transmitting higher prices to Indian markets.The assessment projects Telangana’s 2026-27 milled rice production at 140 lakh metric tonnes (LMT), with estimates ranging between 133 LMT and 147 LMT, depending on water availability. Even under the lower-production scenario, the state is expected to remain structurally rice-surplus.
