West Asia is facing one of the most volatile moments in its recent history following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in joint military strikes by the US and Israel, which triggered retaliatory attacks by Tehran that targeted Israel and military bases in several Arab countries used by the US forces. Iran’s State-run media has confirmed the deaths of Khamenei, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Mohammad Pakpour, and Defence Council secretary Ali Shamkhani in Saturday’s strikes. US President Donald Trump has said the strikes, carried out even as talks with Iran brokered by Oman were still underway, are aimed at eliminating Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes, destroying the Iranian Navy, disrupting proxy groups across the region and facilitating regime change. The Trump regime’s actions — undertaken without the backing of the US Congress, which alone can declare war — are reckless and go completely against Trump’s claims of ending wars around the globe. In the past year alone, Trump has ordered military strikes in seven countries, and the new attacks on Iran, which have intensified following Tehran’s retaliation, have the potential for triggering a regional war with devastating consequences for global trade and energy supplies.
Unlike Venezuela, where power was concentrated in the hands of President Nicolás Maduro, and the US was able to stage-manage a transition, the situation in Iran is very different. Khamenei was the face of the hardline clergy that has wielded power with impunity, but the reality is that there are multiple power centres within the clerical setup, the IRGC, the military and the political establishments. Tehran’s plans for succession were drawn up in recent weeks, and Iran’s missile and drone capabilities will ensure that any war could be drawn out and messy. President Masoud Pezeshkian has described revenge for Khamenei’s killing as Iran’s “legitimate right”, hinting at further hostilities.
