Pune: The southwest monsoon is likely to withdraw from the entire country around Oct 15, potentially marking one of its earliest exits in recent years, even as the northeast monsoon establishes itself over southern India, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Skymet.IMD’s latest extended-range forecast stated that conditions were expected to become favourable for the complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon during Oct 15-21. At the same time, the northeast monsoon was likely to commence over south peninsular India. “Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is expected across most parts of peninsular India and the east coast with the onset of the northeast monsoon. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and Kerala for a few days during the period,” it stated.While rainfall is likely to remain above normal over south peninsular India, it is expected to be below normal over northwest, east and northeast India during the week. GP Sharma, president of Skymet Weather Services, said the southwest monsoon could retreat from the south peninsula and the remaining parts of central and eastern India by Oct 13, leaving only Mizoram and Tripura under its influence. The withdrawal from the entire country could then be completed within the next 48 hours.The monsoon began retreating on Sept 19. It has already withdrawn from northern, western and central India. The current withdrawal line passes through Supaul, Ranchi, Sundargarh, Bargarh, Bijapur, Hyderabad, Belagavi and Panaji. “On the western side, the withdrawal is almost complete, but rainfall activity continues over Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha and parts of northeast India,” Sharma said.He said the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon and the onset of the northeast monsoon could occur simultaneously, or be separated by no more than 48 hours.“The retreat is considered complete once the withdrawal line reaches around 15°N over the peninsula and the monsoon flow vacates the remaining parts of the country,” Sharma said, adding that rainfall over the extreme south peninsula, below 15°N latitude, could begin even before the official onset of the northeast monsoon, as seen this season.Sharma described monsoon withdrawal as a highly variable process. “It typically takes four to six weeks, but it can stall abruptly, accelerate, or progress exactly on schedule,” he said.He pointed to 2019, when withdrawal commenced on Oct 9 and concluded on Oct 16. During the La Niña years of 2020-22, however, the retreat was delayed by several days.If IMD formally declares the monsoon withdrawn around Oct 15 this year, it would match the earliest completion dates recorded over the past decade and a half. The southwest monsoon withdrew on Oct 15 in 2024, Oct 16 in 2025 and Oct 19 in 2023. Between 2011 and 2021, the earliest withdrawal was recorded in 2019 on Oct 16, while significantly delayed exits occurred on Oct 28, 2020, and Oct 25, 2021.
