Last month was the fourth-warmest March globally at 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, with record-high sea surface temperatures hinting at El Niño by July, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported Friday.
Copernicus noted the second-warmest global sea surface temperature (SST) on record, at 20.97°C — the highest after 2024’s El Niño peak. Daily SSTs are rising toward 2024 records, with many centres forecasting neutral-to-El Niño shift from July.
US NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information reported March surface temperatures 1.31°C above 20th-century average, tying 2024 as second-warmest; only 2025 was warmer by 0.01°C. All top-10 March departures since 1850 occurred post-2015.
Europe saw its second-warmest March with drier conditions, after a cold, wet February — the continent’s third-coldest in 14 years.
Warmer anomalies hit the US (prolonged western heatwave), much of Arctic, northeast Russia, and parts of Antarctica. Cooler spots included Alaska, most of Canada, southern Greenland, northwest Siberia.
“Copernicus data for March 2026 tells a sobering story: 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, the lowest Arctic sea ice extent on record for March, and sea surface temperatures again approaching historic highs. Each figure is striking on its own — together, they paint a picture of a climate system under sustained and accelerating pressure. Reliable data, produced operationally from billions of measurements across satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations, is no longer a scientific luxury. It is the essential foundation for any serious climate adaptation and policy response,” said Carlo Buontempo, Copernicus Climate Change Service director at ECMWF.
Arctic sea ice in March averaged 5.7% below normal — the lowest on record. January-March global surface temperature ranked fourth-highest.
NOAA’s outlook deems 2026 very likely among five-warmest years. Its Climate Prediction Center sees 80% ENSO-neutral chance through April-June 2026; El Niño at 61% in May-July, persisting 80% through August and 85% into September.
“Yes, global warming is progressing without any slowdown. This is primarily due to an increase in greenhouse gases. The El Nino this year would add more heat into the atmosphere and increase the chances for heatwaves. We are running out of time,” said M Rajeevan, former earth sciences ministry secretary.
