Hyderabad: The southwest monsoon in Telangana ended with a 17% deficit in the 2026 monsoon season, contrasting sharply with 2023, when the state recorded above-normal rainfall despite El Niño conditions. Historical data presented at a seminar, organised by the planning department recently, shows that El Niño does not invariably result in a severe seasonal rainfall shortfall, with outcomes varying considerably between years.El Niño, a periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, can weaken the southwest monsoon. However, its effects on Telangana are shaped by other atmospheric conditions and weather systems, making the relationship between the phenomenon and the state’s seasonal rainfall more complex than a simple drought-or-no-drought equation.Telangana received 615.5 mm of rainfall against its normal of 740.6 mm during the June 1 to Sept 30 southwest monsoon season this year. Although the deficit was considerably greater than 2023, when rainfall was above normal, it was less severe than the shortfalls recorded during several earlier El Niño years.Examining 16 El Niño years between 1961 and 2023, it was found that rainfall outcomes varied widely, challenging the perception that El Niño invariably leads to drought or monsoon failure.The worst rainfall deficit among the years examined was recorded in 1992, when the southwest monsoon rainfall was 39.3% below normal. Other El Niño years also saw substantial shortfalls. Telangana had recorded a 35.7% deficit in 2004 and a 28.3% deficit in 2002, according to historical data presented in a separate analysis of El Niño and rainfall in Telangana.The findings point to the importance of examining not just seasonal rainfall totals but also its timing and distribution. Telangana recorded an exceptional rainfall surplus of 120.4% in July 2023, followed by a 54.5% deficit in Aug that year. In 2015, rainfall was 61% above normal in June before Aug recorded a 28.5% deficit.Such fluctuations can complicate agricultural planning because crops require rainfall at specific stages of growth. The findings underline the need for localised agricultural planning, contingency measures and better management of water resources. Rather than assuming that every El Niño year would bring widespread drought, policymakers need to account for variations in rainfall timing, intensity and geographical distribution.
