Chadha’s rebellion, though triggered by personal ambition, has not only broken the party’s back in the Rajya Sabha but also triggered a shift in Punjab’s power dynamics – the only state where AAP is currently in power. ET takes a look at how Chadha’s clinical coup is more than an embarrassment for the party, and a call for urgent introspection.
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MISSION PUNJAB GONE AWRY
AAP swept to power in Delhi in 2015 and made the capital its showcase for “kaam ki rajneeti” over a decade. But it was the massive mandate in Punjab in 2022 that was even more significant. The victory marked an endorsement of AAP’s national ambitions-a full state it could govern without the constant friction of a Delhi-style Lieutenant-Governor system.
However, the optics of its chief strategist and “Punjab architect” leading a two-thirds split of its parliamentary wing have exposed chinks in the armour. Seven of 10 Rajya Sabha MPs-Raghav Chadha, Sandeep Pathak, Ashok Mittal, Harbhajan Singh, Swati Maliwal, Vikram Sahney and Rajinder Gupta-have walked out.The list includes Chadha, Pathak and Maliwal, all considered trusted lieutenants of Kejriwal. While Chadha brought financial clout and business influence, Pathak contributed backroom strategy and electoral management. His grassroots work and booth-level management were key to AAP’s 2022 Punjab victory.
The rebellion comes at a time when Assembly elections are approaching. It has also exposed simmering resentment within the party’s Punjab unit over the gradual takeover by leaders from Delhi.
KEJRIWAL’S LEADERSHIP
The AAP national convener now stands at the centre of a shrinking circle. Since the party’s inception in 2012, the list of founding members who remain alongside him has steadily dwindled to one constant: Manish Sisodia.
The original team of Ashutosh, Yogendra Yadav, Prashant Bhushan, Ashish Khetan-and now Chadha, Pathak and Maliwal-has dissipated. Sisodia remains the last of the “original guard”, though his influence has been affected by prolonged legal battles and the party’s shift towards a more centralised, bureaucratic structure led by newer entrants-many of whom, like Chadha, have now proved to be fair-weather allies.
This inability to retain peers has created a leadership vacuum at the top. During Kejriwal’s imprisonment, there was no credible second-rung leadership to steady the party in election-bound Delhi. Instead, factions emerged, competing for influence.
Chadha’s exit reflects a party that has moved away from collective decision-making towards a “coterie” culture, leaving ambitious leaders feeling like disposable assets rather than stakeholders.
ADVANTAGE CONGRESS
While the BJP has been the immediate beneficiary of this week’s coup, the bigger threat to AAP in Punjab may come from the Congress.
By showing that even the inner circle can fracture, the development has made AAP’s 92 MLAs in Punjab more vulnerable. Unlike the BJP, which is still building its grassroots presence in the state, the Congress remains the traditional alternative for Punjabi voters.
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For AAP MLAs who feel sidelined by the Delhi leadership, the Congress offers a more familiar and decentralised political structure. If the BJP can attract MPs, the Congress-backed by experienced state leaders-is well placed to absorb disillusioned cadre and mid-level leaders.
A PARTY AT THE CROSSROADS
After its defeat in Delhi, AAP increasingly resembles a traditional political outfit grappling with the same high-command culture it once opposed.
Kejriwal now faces a critical test: whether he can rebuild the party without several of the leaders who helped shape it. As the BJP consolidates its gains and the Congress prepares for a comeback in Punjab, AAP’s survival may hinge on its ability to reinvent itself.
Punjab 2027 will be its biggest electoral test.
