Those who use hindsight as a benefit will insist that they saw this coming. The signs were ominously visible. They are, of course, only using hindsight as a benefit, so they are best ignored.
That said, 13 proved extremely unlucky for India on Sunday night. Sitting on a 12-match winning streak stretching across two T20 World Cups, they were hauled mercilessly down by an inspired, switched-on South Africa, who exposed several soft spots that Zimbabwe and West Indies, India’s two remaining Super Eight opponents, will have taken note of.
India are way behind on the net run-rate after the 76-run mauling at the hands of South Africa, so far behind that they must put that variable out of their minds and concentrate on just straightforward wins to give them the best chance of making it to the semis. But for that, they need not just to regroup quickly, but also to revert to the clinical, ruthless type that has been their calling card for the last 20 months.
There are problem areas aplenty, starting at the very top and extending deep down the batting order. The left-handedness that dominates the batting line-up and was once seen as a virtue is now becoming a millstone, while the lack of a single meaningful opening partnership has taken its toll on Tilak Varma, notably given that he came into the tournament with very little matchplay in its immediate aftermath. Here’s a look at the mountains India must scale in the week ahead to justify pre-tournament favouritism and qualify at least for the knockouts.
ABHISHEK’s WOEFUL FORM
Three successive ducks can mess with the minds of the very best, of the most seasoned. Abhishek Sharma is the very best according to the ICC’s rankings for T20I batters, though he isn’t necessarily the most seasoned. The 25-year-old is just 20 months young in international cricket and hasn’t experienced anything like this. There must have been a huge sense of relief when he put away his first ball on Sunday in Ahmedabad, from Aiden Markram, behind point for four, but despite a six and another four in his next few deliveries, he never looked settled.
At his best, Abhishek hasn’t tried to hit the cover off the ball; he hasn’t lost shape trying to play agricultural hoicks and mows across the line. But that’s exactly what he attempted in Ahmedabad, with predictably disastrous consequences. Suryakumar did walk down the track more than once to calm his young tyro down, but Abhishek tried to bluster his way out of trouble when a little more circumspection for a few more deliveries would have been to his immense benefit. Clearly, he is short on confidence and high on desperation. While he can’t score runs sitting outside, the leadership group must debate long and hard on whether they can calm him down enough to convince him to rediscover his old self, given that India are already at the point of no-return.
OPENING STUTTERS
Five games have produced four first-over wickets, and the highest opening partnership was 25 against Namibia, a game Abhishek missed through illness. Abhishek has been dismissed thrice in the opening over, while Ishan Kishan joined that unwanted list on Sunday; Aiden Markram’s eviction of the wicketkeeper meant India had lost a wicket to off-spin in the first over of their innings for the third game in a row. Clearly, having two left-handed openers, with a third leftie slotted in at No. 3, isn’t working.
There has been a huge clamour for Sanju Samson’s inclusion because of his right-handedness, but should that alone be the decisive factor? Abhishek’s horror run has almost eclipsed the fact that Samson lost his place as keeper-batter to Kishan only because of his sustained failures at the top of the order. Even against Namibia, he once again frustratingly threw his hand away in the same over in which he smashed Ben Shikongo for a four and two sixes. India must play this smartly. Does Samson earn the nod merely to break the monotony of left-handers? Or will India be better off sticking to Kishan and Abhishek and make a switch at No. 3, where they infuse Suryakumar ahead of Tilak? Tricky call that, with early indications favouring a Samson recall at Abhishek’s expense in Chennai against Zimbabwe on Thursday.
TILAK’S DOWNSLIDE
Tilak Varma’s two-and-a-half-year international career has been marked by numerous freak illnesses. Even before his senior India debut, he had to return home from Bangladesh in late 2022, whilst on an ‘A’ tour due to an autoimmune condition, from which he took months to recover. Just before the World Cup, during the Vijay Hazare Trophy, he suffered testicular bleeding while playing for Hyderabad and was forced into surgery, which compelled him to miss the five-match T20I series against New Zealand, India’s last engagement before the World Cup.
The 23-year-old hadn’t played a T20I for 40 days when, at No. 3, he came out to face the second ball in the opener against the US in Mumbai, on a dodgy surface. He looked comfortable enough in making 25 off 16, but he has subsequently produced 25 (21 balls), 25 (24), 31 (27) and now 1 (2) against South Africa, when he was out on the seventh ball of the chase to a wild charge and swish at Marco Jansen. No one has been more adversely impacted by the early loss of the first wicket than the Hyderabadi, whose natural flair and fluency have been dulled by sluggish pitches. Perhaps there is some merit in India keeping him back at No. 4 while thrusting Suryakumar up to No. 3 to break up the left-left tedium without disturbing the Kishan-Abhishek pair. Tilak is too good a batter to be left out; a more batter-friendly surface at Chepauk is exactly what the doctor has ordered for him.
THE AXAR CONUNDRUM
In recognition of his consistently influential performances as a left-handed floater and a left-arm spinner who is both crafty and intelligent, India’s selectors named Axar Patel as Suryakumar’s deputy, but he was left out on Sunday after much deliberation because India wanted to use Washington Sundar’s off-spin against South Africa’s top order in the Power Play, but couldn’t do so because Jasprit Bumrah and Arshdeep Singh were so good in the first six overs.
Confusing, right? Here’s throwing more light, then. The South African top three has two left-handers in Quinton de Kock and Ryan Rickelton, and the think-tank’s plans were based around Washington bowling at least two of the first six overs to them. However, Bumrah accounted for both the lefties, and Arshdeep gobbled up Markram, which meant India were forced to hold Washington back, and he was lined up by Dewald Brevis and David Miller. Axar has a good record, both in World Cups and against South Africa, and while the reasoning behind his omission is sound, something still jars. If India are still keen to go the Washington route, maybe that should be at the expense of Rinku Singh, who has neither made a substantial contribution lower down nor inspired much confidence.
THE RUN-RATE NADIR
The South African pounding has set India back humongously. Their heaviest defeat by runs in all T20 World Cups has left them with a debilitating net run-rate of -3.80 from which, one suspects, there is no coming back. India can’t afford to, and must not, play with one eye on the run-rate. They will be well advised to forget about that, believe in themselves, overcome the Zimbabwean and West Indian obstacles, and hope for South Africa to bail them out so that there is no three-way tie at the top, which will be broken by the run-rate route. The immediate reaction will be that India have bid their semifinal chances goodbye, but neither is that accurate nor is the situation so dire. All India can do after this massive loss is to keep up their end of the bargain, which is winning the next two outings, and hope for the best, which is for South Africa to do them a favour and finish the group with an all-win record. In that case, the net run-rate will become immaterial.
So many issues to address, so little time to address them. India must course-correct immediately; otherwise, they will be thrown out of their own party post-haste, heaping the pressure on the already beleaguered head coach, Gautam Gambhir. That’s not a happy thought to wake up to.
