Srinagar, Jul 10: Amid ongoing hot and humid weather conditions, the weatherman has predicted relief in the next two days, with spells of rain and thundershower expected at many places and heavy rain or brief intense heavy showers at isolated places in the Chenab valley and Pir Panjal range of Jammu Division.
Director Meteorological Department (MeT), Srinagar, Dr Mukhtar Ahmad, said that one or two spells of rain and thundershower are expected at many places on July 11 and 12, with heavy rainfall in parts of Jammu Division. He said temperatures will also go down by a few degrees for the next few days, and there is a possibility of rain along both axes of the Amarnath Yatra, including Baltal and Pahalgam.
An official in the MeT department said that Jammu Division, especially hilly areas and a few plains, could witness heavy rainfall with the possibility of flash floods, mudslides, and landslides at vulnerable places. Farmers and orchardists have been advised to refrain from agricultural activities during this period.
Independent Weather Forecaster Faizan Arif Keng, in his detailed forecast, said a fresh Western Disturbance is expected to impact most parts of Jammu and Kashmir during July 11 and 12. He said moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea will remain present, though with weak impact, and chances of high-intensity showers cannot be ruled out.
The chances of cloudbursts will remain lower compared to previous days, but precautions should still be taken as the atmosphere still has the capacity to hold significant moisture, Keng said.
From July 13-15, nothing major is expected, though short-duration showers may occur in some parts, he added.
The forecast comes at a time when the Union Territory has recorded only a 4 per cent rainfall deficit during the ongoing season from June 1 to July 8, 2026. Against a normal precipitation of 110.2 mm, Jammu and Kashmir has recorded 106 mm of rainfall during the period. Shopian in South Kashmir is the only district with a large excess rainfall of 76 per cent, while eight districts, including Srinagar, Reasi, Rajouri, Kishtwar, Kulgam, Kupwara, Budgam, and Bandipora, have recorded a deficit between 20 and 59 per cent.
Other stations, including Anantnag, Baramulla, Doda, Ganderbal, Jammu, Kathua, Poonch, Pulwama, Ramban, Samba, and Udhampur, have recorded normal, excess, or large excess rainfall during the period.
