There’s recently been a fair bit of edginess in global climate politics. Declarations are made, targets are announced and revised—sometimes with aplomb, sometimes diluted quietly or even with flourish. Supply chains are tighter than they used to be. Geopolitics keeps intruding. The energy transition, which once looked neat and linear on paper, is turning out to be anything but.
Against that backdrop, India’s climate commitments feel different. This is not because they are the most ambitious on paper—but because they have, so far, held steady in the face of all the turmoil around them. One lesson in recent times have taught us is to not discount the value of such stability.
Under its previous Nationally Determined Contribution—which serves as national targets—India set out to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% from 2005 levels by 2030, move towards 50% non-fossil power capacity, and create a 2.5–3 billion tonne carbon sink, much of it through forest and tree cover. These were part of India’s net zero by 2070 objectives. These targets were never intended to grab headlines—more to serve as statements of intent and organising principles for the climate response.
Since making those targets, progress has been significant and the momentum is real. India has already crossed the 50% non-fossil capacity mark ahead of schedule. Emissions intensity is moving in the right direction, possibly faster than expected. That does not mean the transition is easy—but it does suggest that parts of it are working.
This matters more than might be immediately obvious.
When targets are met early, the next set of targets carries a different kind of weight. There is less need for signalling, and more space for ambition. Nothing like success to fuel aspiration.
That is the context in which the updated NDC should be read. India has now announced the aim of a 47% reduction in emissions intensity by 2035, alongside a 60% share of non-fossil power capacity, and an expanded carbon sink target of 3.5 to 4 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent through forests and tree cover.
On paper, these look like incremental increases. In practice, they build on track record and strategic imperative.
The underlying idea has not changed. India must grow—but growth and emissions do not have to rise together in lockstep. What has changed is that this is no longer just a proposition; it is beginning to show up in the data, in the power mix, and in parts of industry.
Renewables are scaling. Efficiency is improving, if unevenly. Novel industrial pathways—green hydrogen, biofuels—are still early, but no longer hypothetical.
It is also worth noting what this transition is not. It is not being driven by a single sector or a single policy push. Energy is central, but land use is part of the story as well. The expanded forest and tree cover target reflect that. It sits somewhat quietly in the NDC, but it matters—both for carbon and for the broader landscape. It deserves as much attention as the energy mix. There is also much work that remains on the energy side. Integrating renewables into the grid, building flexibility, and scaling storage are among the more difficult challenges ahead.
The external environment is shifting too, and not always in predictable ways.
Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have brought energy security to the centre of India’s development story. The news cycle only serves to amplify the case for domestic, renewable-based, and diversified energy systems. Renewables, in that sense, are not just about climate—they are increasingly about resilience and national security.
So, the turbulence cuts both ways. It complicates the transition, and it is important to acknowledge the disruption it brings, but it also adds momentum.
None of this suggests the path ahead is straightforward. Industrial decarbonisation remains difficult. Financing is uneven. Some sectors will move faster than others, and there will be missteps.
The direction, however, is not unclear.
The revised targets suggest that India remains steady on its development trajectory. The rejuvenated ambition reflects a deeper shift: lowering the emissions intensity of the economy is becoming part of how growth itself is being driven. This is the advantage of India’s approach—it is more likely to be broad-based and enduring.
Over time, this matters more than glamorous announcements. Credibility in climate policy is not built on targets alone. It comes from meeting them—and then setting the next ones with greater confidence, and with the benefit of tailwinds.
That is what India’s latest update suggests.
A steady path.
(The views expressed are personal)
This article is authored by Hisham Mundol, chief advisor, India, Environmental Defence Fund.
