The State Bank of India (SBI) has rejected claims that India’s nominal GDP growth in the first quarter of FY27 was only 2.6%, saying the figure came from comparing two different versions of the GDP data.The pushback came after former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg questioned the government’s reported 7.8% real GDP growth for Q1 FY27.Garg pointed to a revision in the previous year’s current-price GDP saying that Q1 FY26 GDP had been revised from around Rs 86 lakh crore to about Rs 80 lakh crore and argued that, without the revision, nominal growth would have been around 2.6%.Official data released by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI) showed real GDP growing 7.8% year-on-year in Q1 FY27. Real GDP at constant prices stood at an estimated Rs 81.36 lakh crore, up from Rs 75.46 lakh crore in Q1 FY26. Nominal GDP growth was reported at 10.3%.SBI said the 2.6% figure does not represent a valid comparison, rather it is “completely unsolicited and a sure sign of intellectual dishonesty.”
Dispute over the 2.6% figure
The National Statistical Office (NSO) had estimated nominal GDP for Q1 FY26 at Rs 86.1 lakh crore when it released the quarterly figures on August 29, 2025.However, the August 31 release, prepared using the new GDP base year of 2022-23, revised the Q1 FY26 figure down to Rs 80 lakh crore.For Q1 FY27, nominal GDP was estimated at Rs 88.3 lakh crore.According to SBI, the 2.6% growth figure comes from comparing the latest Rs 88.3 lakh crore estimate with the older Rs 86.1 lakh crore figure for Q1 FY26, instead of using the revised number.“Some estimates are now ascribing a 2.6% growth in nominal GDP for the latest quarter instead of 10.3%, by calculating yearly growth rate using Rs 88.3 lakh crore (we call it A series in the adjacent table) over Rs 86.1 lakh crore (we call it C series). This is completely unsolicited and a sure sign of intellectual dishonesty,” SBI said.The bank said the latest Q1 FY27 figure should instead be compared with the revised Q1 FY26 figure under the new GDP series. That calculation gives nominal GDP growth of 9.7%.SBI also laid out an alternative comparison for those wanting to use the previous, unrevised Q1 GDP base. It said the Rs 88.3 lakh crore Q1 FY27 figure should be compared with Rs 80.4 lakh crore under the new base, rather than the old Rs 86.1 lakh crore estimate.“If anyone truly wants to compare current nominal GDP numbers over the previous unrevised base of Q1 GDP, then Rs 88.3 lakh crore (new base, A series) should be estimated over Rs 80.4 lakh crore (new base, B series), which comes out to 9.7% growth (as against 10.3%),” the report said.
Real GDP growth would still be strong
SBI said that the picture would remain positive even if nominal growth were calculated differently. It said that after adjusting the deflator under the alternative calculation, real GDP growth for Q1 FY27 would be 7.4%, compared with the officially released 7.8%.“Hypothetically, even with this nominal growth (by adjusting deflator), the real growth for Q1 FY27 would be 7.4% (as against released 7.8%), still good enough when looking at wall of exogenous challenges,” it said.The bank also stressed that GDP numbers are not final when they are first released. Quarterly estimates are revised over time and those revisions can move in either direction.SBI said that between FY22 and FY25, quarterly GDP data saw 25 upward revisions and 12 downward revisions.
Latest figures to be revised
According to SBI, what made the latest revision different was that the National Accounts Statistics directly incorporated revised figures from previous years into the quarterly data.The bank said this was done to make the figures more transparent and to bring them in line with base revisions in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI).“This is perfectly legitimate,” SBI said.It added that aligning the bases helps keep GDP deflators and volume estimates consistent with the updated price and production indices.The bank also pointed out that the Q1 FY27 GDP estimate released in August 2026 is itself not final. The figure will go through further revisions and is expected to be finalised only by February 2029.“Revisions are part and parcel of a GDP number,” SBI said.SBI also rejected the claim that the change in the GDP base year had increased the size of India’s nominal GDP. According to the bank, the latest base-year revision had actually resulted in a lower nominal GDP size.
